080
FXUS62 KILM 260038
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT HERALDING COOLER,
DRIER WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH MAY BRING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO FRIDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE COAST.
UPDATE
EXTENDED LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THRU
THIS EVENING, AND MAY CARRY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THE SC
COASTAL COUNTIES. ENOUGH CAPE LEFTOVER AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
DRIFTING/SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO PRODCE THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.
SHOULD SEE THE COLD FRONT CLEAR THE ILM CWA COAST BY/AROUND
DAYBREAK TUE. SOME TWEAKING OF SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BUT NO CATEGORICAL CHANGES OTHER THAN XTENDING
THE POPS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NW. CAMS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SPARKS CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WHILE
MOST INLAND PLACES REMAIN DRY AS 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN. THE
PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY, STILL SLIGHTLY RARE IN AUGUST, WILL
PERHAPS SLOW THE NORMAL DIURNAL DIMINISHING OF RADAR RETURNS
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. THE WRF HANGING ONTO MODERATE
CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z APPEARS WAY OVERDONE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION. AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WILL DIP BELOW 70 TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RUN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY BUT THE LOWERED DEWPOINTS WILL
OFFER A LESS "AUGUSTY" FEEL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. PWATS WILL DROP TO <1" BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DRY, COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
MIGHT BE A BIT TOO HIGH FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING MIDNIGHT
ONWARDS, SO HAVE NOT LOWERED LOWS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CALMER
CONDITIONS ALBEIT WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SET UP
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS I HAVEN'T INCORPORATED
OUR TYPICAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WOULD DROP COLDER SPOTS
5-10 DEGREES, BUT IF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE
THESE SPOTS MAY DROP LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE, HAVE KNOCKED LOWS EVERYWHERE DOWN BY A COUPLE
DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NEAR 60. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, LIKELY
NOT MAKING IT DOWN TO OUR AREA BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NE COAST.
REGARDLESS, THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW WILL BRING POPS
INTO THE FORECAST ONCE MORE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH BUT TOO FAR AWAY, PWATS ~1-1.5"
SUPPORTING POPS PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY DAY TO DAY
AND BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHORT-LIVED MVFR RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE SEA BREEZE HAVING MESHED UP
WITH IT, SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUE. INLAND TERMINALS
WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT WITH FEW/SCT STRATOCU AND CIRRUS. DURING
TUE, WILL SEE SCT/BKN 6000 TO 6500 FOOT FLAT TOPPED CU. DRY AIR
TO BUILD IN TUE UNDER NNW-NNE FLOW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING INTERMITTENT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR FRIDAY. PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS
SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL VEER AND LIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BY TOMORROW WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED
N TO NE WHILE SPEEDS SETTLE TO 10KT. WIND WAVES OBVIOUSLY QUITE
SMALL AND A 13 SEC E SWELL WILL CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH
A NE SURGE OF STRONGER 10-15 KT WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. E TO NE FLOW ~10 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD UNTIL SATURDAY WHERE WINDS
WILL INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND AND LAGGING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVEHEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 1-3 FT WITH THE REMNANT LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
ERIN LEAVING OUR WATERS BY THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/LEW
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