000
FXUS62 KILM 261033
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OFFSHORE. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL NC AND
THIS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT LEADING THE
LINE OF THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL CREEP OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
MORNING. DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE NUMERICALLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, BUT THE REDUCED HUMIDITY WILL FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE FOR LATE
AUGUST. MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CRISP LOW TONIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S!
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE WILL WHIP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WEDNESDAY, HELPING DIG OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. WITH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE 700-
500 MB LAYER REMAINING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THERE'S LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY DRY. I AM INCLUDING A SMALL 20
POP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL (SURFACE-925 MB WINDS) MAY TURN
ONSHORE LONG ENOUGH FOR DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S,
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG OF SHALLOW CAPE AND
SHOWERS BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 700 MB.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE 82-84 DEGREE RANGE. FORECAST
LOWS ARE 60-65 AWAY FROM THE WARMER BEACHES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF CHANNELED
VORTICITY EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT, PARTIALLY
PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND IT MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
THIS IS A COMPLEX INTERACTION AND THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SLOWLY COMING INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WEATHER IMPACTS HERE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON,
TRACKED ON 700 MB CONSTANT PRESSURE OR 310-315K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
CHARTS (EITHER WORKS) WILL TAKE A CIRCUITOUS PATH FROM ARIZONA TODAY
TO NE/KS WEDNESDAY, THE OZARKS INTO MS/AL THURSDAY, AND FINALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
THE APPROACHING 500 MB VORTICITY MAY HELP INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD STALLED FROM NEAR THE GA COAST EARLY FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY REMAIN TOO WEAK AND STREAK OFFSHORE TOO
QUICKLY TO CONTRIBUTE MEANINGFULLY TO LOCAL PRECIPITATION
GENERATION.
THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN ALONG WITH YESTERDAY'S 12Z ECMWF ALL SHOW
RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME IS ANTICIPATED TO TRAVERSE. THIS SAME PATTERN OF PRECIPITATION
IS ECHOED BY MONDAY'S 12Z RUN OF THE GOOGLE GRAPHCAST ML MODEL.
FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT IN LUMBERTON TO 40-50 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A RENEWED PUSH OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE OLD STALLED
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL IN PLACE
ALOFT. TRACKING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOMES VERY DIFFICULT AT 6+
DAYS LEAD TIME BUT IT'S POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE N FL/GA COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST POPS OF 30-50
PERCENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY REFLECT THE STATISTICAL PROBABILITY OF
RAIN RATHER THAN ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE PATH OF ANY PARTICULAR
WEATHER SYSTEM.
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
TURN SLIGHTLY NE THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. DRY AIR WILL PREVENT FOG
OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING INTERMITTENT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FOR FRIDAY. PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS TURN NORTHERLY EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRIEFLY
SURGING EARLY TODAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15
KNOTS, BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE
BY A TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH SHOULD OFFSHORE THURSDAY ALLOWING WIND
DIRECTIONS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
MODELS STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCES BUT ARE BEGINNING TO
COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR, BUT THIS SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AS THE LOW WILL
STREAK NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST QUICKLY LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS IN ITS
WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN EASTERLY 9-10 SECOND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
SMALL 3-4 SECOND WIND WAVE ON TOP. COMBINED SEAS INSIDE 20 MILES
SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 2 FEET IN HEIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21
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