385
FXUS62 KILM 261808
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
208 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OFFSHORE. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HEALTHY TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., WHERE
IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEYOND. COOL ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING TONIGHT BUT A FEW KT OF WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL
COOLING (AND YES, IT DOES SEEM EARLY IN THE YEAR TO BE USING THAT
TERM). EVEN SO, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND THE LIGHT WINDS
DID OPT TO FAVOR SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE. THE COOL ADVECTION
WEAKENS TO NEUTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 5 KT
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, WHICH ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
DRY, COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH UNTIL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
I HAVE ADDED SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CLOUDS
MAY GET IN THE WAY. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE UPPER
50S. SHOULD CLOUDS SCATTER OUT MORE THESE COULD EASILY GET INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE NEAR 60. THURSDAY WILL SEE
THICKER CLOUD COVER BUILDING IN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND THEN WE'LL
GET SOME WARMING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO FILTER IN AS MOISTURE
RECOVERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STALLED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A FRONT
WILL BE STALLED OFF THE SE COAST, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH THE
HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1-1.5" WITH
SOME PULSES OF PVA ALOFT BUT NO MAJOR FEATURE. POPS MAY BE OVERDONE
FOR THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY DECOUPLE TO CALM THIS EVE BUT A FEW KT SHOULD RETURN BEFORE
SUNUP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING INTERMITTENT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL
DECREASE IN THE HIGH END, THE 3 FT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
FORECAST. THE 5 SECOND WIND CHOP SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT WAVE AS
THE NE BACKSWELL CONTINUES TO ABATE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...E TO NE WINDS ~10 KTS WILL BECOME
MORE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL THEN INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH, NE WINDS INCREASING TO ~15-20 KTS. WAVEHEIGHTS
AROUND 1-2 FT, INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/LEW
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