621
FXUS62 KILM 262349
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
749 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL
OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOW TO MODEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE LATER THIS LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPDATE
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT GOING INTO DAYLIGHT
WED. PASSING CIRRUS, WITH A FEW OPAQUE PATCHES, TO MOVE OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT, LESS COVERAGE GOING INTO DAYLIGHT WED. SOME TWEAKING
OF THE HOURLY ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AND
LATEST NBM FCST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HEALTHY TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.,
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEYOND. COOL
ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TONIGHT BUT A FEW KT OF WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL COOLING (AND YES, IT DOES SEEM EARLY IN THE
YEAR TO BE USING THAT TERM). EVEN SO, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
TROUGH AND THE LIGHT WINDS DID OPT TO FAVOR SOME OF THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. THE COOL ADVECTION WEAKENS TO NEUTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 5 KT SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S,
WHICH ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
DRY, COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH UNTIL OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. I HAVE ADDED SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT CLOUDS MAY GET IN THE WAY. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE THE
COLDER SPOTS IN THE UPPER 50S. SHOULD CLOUDS SCATTER OUT MORE
THESE COULD EASILY GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. OTHERWISE LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 60. THURSDAY WILL SEE THICKER CLOUD COVER BUILDING
IN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND THEN WE'LL GET SOME WARMING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OFFSHORE. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL START TO FILTER IN AS MOISTURE RECOVERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STALLED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A
FRONT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE SE COAST, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
HOW MUCH THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA. PWATS WILL BE
AROUND 1-1.5" WITH SOME PULSES OF PVA ALOFT BUT NO MAJOR
FEATURE. POPS MAY BE OVERDONE FOR THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THIS 24 HR FCST PERIOD. CIRRUS, PATCHES OF
OPAQUE, TO MOVE OVERHEAD. FEW HIGH CU OR AC POSSIBLE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO LIFT FROM THE AFTN/EVENING RESULTANT
WIND AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVBL. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
5 KT MAY BRIEFLY DECOUPLE TO CALM THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD RESUME DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS AND CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY AT 5 TO 9 KT. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTN/EVENING WHERE RESULTANT WILL VEER WINDS TO THE E-SE AOB
10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING INTO
THU. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING INTERMITTENT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUN FROM POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS WILL DECREASE IN THE HIGH END, THE 3 FT WAVE
DROPPING OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE 5 SECOND WIND CHOP SHOULD
BECOME THE DOMINANT WAVE AS THE NE BACKSWELL CONTINUES TO ABATE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...E TO NE WINDS ~10 KTS WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL THEN INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH, NE WINDS INCREASING TO ~15-20
KTS. WAVEHEIGHTS AROUND 1-2 FT, INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BY SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/LEW
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