158
FXUS62 KILM 271008
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHEASTERN US AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER AND A DRY
AIR MASS TODAY. ADVECTION IS WEAK, BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND
WITH LOW 60S AND MID 60S NEAR THE MORE HUMID COASTLINE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN IMPORTANT CHANGES WITH HOW
MODELS ARE HANDLING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN IT THAT WILL NECESSITATE
SOME FORECAST CHANGES.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY NOW
APPEARS STRONGER THAN WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING 24 HOURS AGO.
FORECAST 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ARE NOW 10-20 METERS
LOWER DUE TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN. A PACKET OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON WHICH WAS SHOWN TO
TAKE A FAIRLY SOLID PATH ACROSS GA/SC NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO GET
DIRECTED FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE SHARPER CURVATURE OF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS MEANS RAIN CHANCES ARE BEING ADJUSTED SHARPLY
DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, NO HIGHER THAN 20-30
PERCENT ALONG THE COAST.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP WELL OFF THE SC COAST FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE SUCH THAT NO ATLANTIC OR GULF MOISTURE WILL GET
ADVECTED ONSHORE. THE LOW SHOULD STREAK OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH NO
REAL IMPACT LOCALLY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE
WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY, INCLUDING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY, IS HANDLED VERY DIFFERENTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK BY
THE VARIOUS MODELS LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN.
WPC'S PREFERRED SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS MOST LIKE THE TUESDAY 12Z
ECMWF AND TUESDAY 18Z GFS: A LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY, LOITERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN ACCELERATING NORTHWARD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THIS IDEA WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK: MAINLY LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS. LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
EACH DAY, CONTINGENT ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST ANY SURFACE
LOW GETS BUT ALSO MODULATED BY DRY AIR FEEDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. HOPEFULLY MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE A EASTERLY SHIFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A SEA BREEZE; WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING INTERMITTENT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS
SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH ANOTHER DIURNAL EASTERLY SHIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
CREATING MORE OF AN EASTERLY WIND, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS 1-2
FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP WELL OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS ONLY EFFECT MIGHT BE TO BACK OUR WIND DIRECTIONS
MORE NORTHERLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND BUT MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
ITSELF AND THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY
EVEN APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SOMETIME SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21
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