438
FXUS62 KILM 271812
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
212 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM, SUPPRESSING FRONTAL MOISTURE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, THE ONLY REAL FORECAST ISSUE IS FIGURING OUT
TONIHGHT'S LOWS PENDING A POSSIBLE DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK
QUITE AS IDEAL AS LAST EVE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
FRIDAY LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE LATER
IN THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO RECOVER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES CREEPING IN FROM THE SW BUT THE PERIOD SHOULD STILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. I ADDED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARDS THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON IF CLOUDY SKIES SCATTER OUT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH DEPARTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.
THE HIGH WILL SERVE AS DRIER AIR THAT WILL SQUASH SHOWERS, WHILE
FLOW AROUND THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE
OF SHOWER FORMATION. WHERE THE DELINEATION BETWEEN THESE SETS UP
WILL DETERMINE WHAT OUR CWA SEES FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE REAL BULK OF DRY AIR IS
JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH MOISTURE TIGHT AT THE COAST. THIS IS
LOOKING LIKE DAY TO DAY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST,
MAXING OUT IN THE 30-40% RANGE. OVERTIME THESE POPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BE REFINED BASED ON WHERE THESE FEATURES SET UP. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS THAT WILL TURN ONSHORE ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH MOVES SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
FRIDAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING INTERMITTENT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS STARTING LATE FRIDAY. DAY TO DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA,
IT'S CENTER SHIFTING SLIGHT EASTWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS
THEY VEER SLIGHTLY FROM NORTH TO NE. THERE IS STILL A MINOR SWELL
COMPONENT THAT CONTINUES TO FADE. THE DIMINUTIVE WIND CHOP WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WAVE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH NE WINDS BECOMING S ~10 KTS. E FLOW WILL THEN SET UP FOR
THE WEEKEND AS WE SIT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. WAVES WILL BE ~1-3 FT. THE PG WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH E TO NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20+ KTS AND WAVES
3-5 FT, SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/LEW
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