992
FXUS62 KILM 282338
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
738 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE BY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST, BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. IT DOESN'T DRIVE THE HIGH VERY FAR SOUTH SO WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT OUT OF THE
NW TOMORROW, WITH A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE. THE THICK
HIGH CLOUD PRESENT MOST OF TODAY SHOULD THIN OVERNIGHT FOR A SUNNY
START TO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A CU FIELD AOA 5KFT. A LITTLE BIT OF WAA
ATOP THE POORLY DEFINED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A SEASONABLY
WARM AFTERNOON WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MOISTURE RECOVERY IS LAGGING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINING MAINLY DRY EVEN THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, AWAY FROM THE COAST AT LEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THE FORCING ISN'T IMPRESSIVE. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S, HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WE WILL SIT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH INLAND AND A STALLED FRONT
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
AT THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOONS, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AS WE LACK ANY
LARGER FORCING.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPANSIVE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CERTAINLY PRECLUDES ANY FOG MENTION
AS DOES THE DRY SURFACE LAYER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING INTERMITTENT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY. DAY TO DAY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...SPECTRAL WAVE PLOTS SHOW THAT THOUGH WEAK, A WEAK
SWELL HAS PERSISTED LONGER THAN FORECAST. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ABATE HOWEVER LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY THE WIND WAVES. WITH WIND SPEEDS
LIGHT (AND DIRECTION SOMEWHAT VARIABLE) THEY WILL BE MINIMAL IN
HEIGHT. AN EXTRA NEARSHORE CHOP MAY DEVELOP IN THE SEABREEZE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE PG INCREASING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND A STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT/COASTAL LOW SITS TO OUR
SOUTH. S TO E FLOW ~10 KTS WILL BECOME NE 15-20 KTS FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS. WAVES WILL RESPOND IN KIND INCREASING FROM ~2 FT TO 3-5
FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MBB/LEW
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