982
FXUS62 KILM 290609
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
209 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS MORNING. AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER WILL BE USHERED OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BRING
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITHOUT THE
THICK PERIODS OF CIRRUS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, LOW TO MID 60S INLAND, UPPER 60S NEAR
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
*SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY
*MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE STARTING SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES, WHICH ARE TOUGHER
TO FORECAST, MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES VERY LOW. TEMPS WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK; POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL STARTING WED
*VERY LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS/FLASH FLOODING WED/THU
*MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH THRU TUE NIGHT
*MODERATE WED/THU
DETAILS: A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH WITH A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE LIKELY STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS MORE IN LINE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS WHILE INLAND AREAS ARE DRIER. HOWEVER, THE UPPER TROUGH
COULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE TOWARD MID WEEK LEADING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER EVEN ACROSS INLAND AREAS SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL, EXCEPT POSSIBLY RETURNING
CLOSER TO NORMAL THU.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE INLAND THIS MORNING AFTER THICK CIRRUS CLEARS THE REGION.
WINDS TURN NW BEHIND A TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZE COULD
IMPACT WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING INTERMITTENT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY. DAY TO DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. THE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS UP TO 15 OR 20 KNOTS. SEAS 1-2 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SAT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THUS, WINDS (MAINLY GUSTS)
AND SEAS COULD NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (25 KT AND/OR 6
FT).
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/21
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