546
FXUS62 KILM 301818
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
218 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH PASSING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MAINTAIN CONTROL
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT
THE AREA WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT PASSES BY JUST OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF BROADER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN US IN TANDEM WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE,
MOST NOTICEABLE ALONG THE 305-310K SURFACES WITHIN A MOIST
LAYER, HAVE RESULTED IN A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OVER EASTERN SC, WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH, ANOTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT BEHIND IT, HELPING TO CONTINUE THE RAIN THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING IN NVA BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE OBSERVED BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE, SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STALLED FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG OR
NEAR US-76 AS OF THIS WRITING, WITH ESE WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY AND NE WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY. THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER
JUST SLIGHTLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
STRENGTHENS, RESULTING IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING A
STEADY NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THE STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY,
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOMEWHAT GREATER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT
TOWARDS THE EAST WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST, WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEING
NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW-NORMAL ON SUNDAY, IN THE
LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR NORTH. THIS HELPS
HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH, SUPPRESSING MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS SOME MINOR RAIN
CHANCES LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHEREAS A FEW OPERATIONAL
MODELS REMAIN RAIN-FREE. GIVEN THE DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE LOW
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM GETS KICKED OUT BY A TROUGH COMING
IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS.
THIS FEATURE ONLY THEN TO BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE
VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS BROAD CIRCULATION DRIVES
A LARGELY MOISTURE-DEPRIVED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK PREFRONTAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A PASSING SHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS, AND ANOTHER CHANCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STALLED FRONT DRIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF
STREAM. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BEHIND THIS FRONT, BUT STEADY
ENE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS SLIDING
INTO THE EASTERN TERMINALS, THUS PROMPTING A PROB30 GROUP FOR THOSE
SITES OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE ONSHORE WINDS MAY BRING AN
MVFR DECK OF STRATUS INTO PLAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION AND IS RESERVED TO THE PROB30 GROUP AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
A TIME THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT (WHICH COULD RESULT
IN BRIEF MVFR MIST AT THE INLAND TERMINALS), LINGERING CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP
LATER IN THE NIGHT, PREVENTING ANY MIST FROM GROWING. AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW, GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A PASSING SHRA OR
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL START TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. SEAS AROUND 1-2 FT THIS
AFTERNOON RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS, REACHING 2-4 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHING INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE ON SUNDAY, PEAKING LATE IN
THE DAY. THE PRIMARY WAVE SPECTRUM CONTRIBUTOR WILL BE A SWELL OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7 SEC WHILE A WEAKER ESE SWELL
OF 1-3 FT WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7 SEC IS ALSO EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... PERIOD INITIALIZES WITH SCA AS
GRADIENT IS PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. BY TUESDAY THE GRADIENT EASES JUST ENOUGH FOR
THE SIX FOOT WAVES TO DROP DOWN TO 5 BUT A CONTINUED NE WIND WILL
STILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE HIGH SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO ABATE MORE
APPRECIABLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MBB/ABW
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