530
FXUS62 KILM 310037
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
837 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT PASSES BY JUST OFFSHORE.
UPDATE
NE-ENE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH LONGSHORE
CURRENTS ALONG E-SE FACING BEACHES. IN ADDITION, SOUTHERLY
FACING BEACHES WILL OBSERVE STRONG EAST TO WEST LONGSHORE
CURRENTS. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
BEACHES, EXCEPT REMAINING LOW ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF BROADER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN US IN TANDEM WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE,
MOST NOTICEABLE ALONG THE 305-310K SURFACES WITHIN A MOIST
LAYER, HAVE RESULTED IN A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OVER EASTERN SC, WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH, ANOTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT BEHIND IT, HELPING TO CONTINUE THE RAIN THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING IN NVA BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE OBSERVED BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE, SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STALLED FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG
OR NEAR US-76 AS OF THIS WRITING, WITH ESE WINDS AND DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY AND NE WINDS WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY. THIS
SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER JUST SLIGHTLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS, RESULTING IN EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
THE BEACHES AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND
SOMEWHAT GREATER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT TOWARDS THE EAST
WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST, WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY MAKE IT TO SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEING
NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW-NORMAL ON SUNDAY, IN
THE LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK
LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR NORTH. THIS
HELPS HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH, SUPPRESSING
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS
SOME MINOR RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHEREAS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN RAIN-FREE. GIVEN THE
DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE LOW WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE IN FUTURE FORECASTS ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM GETS KICKED OUT BY A TROUGH
COMING IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A
FEW SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE ONLY THEN TO BE ABSORBED BY AN
IMPRESSIVELY LARGE VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BROAD CIRCULATION DRIVES A LARGELY MOISTURE-DEPRIVED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT A
CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK
PREFRONTAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DESPITE A SEEMINGLY MESSY PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RAINFALL SOMEWHAT SURPRISING WELL INLAND THE PAST FEW
HOURS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED IN
NATURE. A BETTER DEFINED NE WIND FIELD WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER
OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT/PRECLUDE BR
AND OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A PASSING SHRA OR
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL START TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. SEAS AROUND 1-2 FT THIS
AFTERNOON RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS, REACHING 2-4 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHING INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE ON SUNDAY, PEAKING LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRIMARY WAVE SPECTRUM CONTRIBUTOR WILL BE A
SWELL OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7 SEC WHILE A
WEAKER ESE SWELL OF 1-3 FT WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7 SEC IS ALSO
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... PERIOD INITIALIZES WITH SCA AS
GRADIENT IS PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. BY TUESDAY THE GRADIENT EASES JUST ENOUGH FOR
THE SIX FOOT WAVES TO DROP DOWN TO 5 BUT A CONTINUED NE WIND WILL
STILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE HIGH SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO ABATE MORE
APPRECIABLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MBB/ABW
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