674
FXUS62 KILM 092347
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE WITH RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND SETS UP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES PLANNED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS COOL AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME WEAK MID AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKS SOUTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NC. WINDS TURNING NW WILL RE-INTRODUCE DRY AIR AND SCOUR REMNANT LOW
CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
LATEST MODEL TRENDS KEEP LOW PRESSURE ALONG STALLED FRONT WELL
OFFSHORE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS KEEPING OUR
AREA DRY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE IN PLACE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS AROUND
80F WEDNESDAY AND LOW 80S THURSDAY, WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S-LOW 60S BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED
OFFSHORE FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE
FEATURE AND RELATIVELY BETTER MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS US, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING NEAR THE COAST ONCE MORE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD PASS CLOSEST ON THIS DAY.
AFTERWARDS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN WITH A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMEST
CONDITIONS MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
2500FT CLOUD DECK ALONG THE COAST PUSHING EAST RIGHT NOW. MOST
PLACES WILL THUS BE VFR EXCEPT FOR ILM WHERE THIS CLOUD COVER MAY
LINGER OR EVEN LOWER AS A RENEWED SURGE OCCURS OUT OF THE NE AS LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE LIFTS TO THE NE. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IFR DEVELOPS AT ILM AND POSSIBLY LBT.
THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS SO HAVE RELEGATED 700FT CIGS TO A TEMPO GROUP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ROUGH SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SCA IN PLACE THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. BREEZY NE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE. EXPECT AN ELEVATED SEA STATE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DESPITE FALLING BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
CURRENT FORECASTED SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SEAS 3-5
FT WEDNESDAY LOWERS TO 2-4 FT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH END OF THE
WEEK, PRIMARILY DUE TO NE SWELL WITH A 1-2 FT SE SWELL MIXED IN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING/RIPS
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TIDES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCATIONS
INCLUDE THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD AND
ALONG THE COASTS OF NE SC AND SE NC INCLUDING THE BACK BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEW HANOVER AND
GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES WHILE A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH LONGSHORE
CURRENT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS ALL BEACHES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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