860
FXUS62 KILM 100637
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
237 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN QUIET AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE GENERAL TROFFINESS ALOFT WILL SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS REACHING THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH THE STALLED FRONT MUCH FURTHER
OFFSHORE TAKING MUCH OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, THE CONSOLIDATED BUT BROAD SFC LOW LOCATED
MOVING ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK,
IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER NE, FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE END RESULT WILL BE THE SFC PG RELAXING-SOME AND
NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING-SOME. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RUN
80-85 ACROSS NORTHEAST SC WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT EARLIER,
AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR SOUTHEAST NC WHICH MAY BE TOO
HIGH GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE DAY THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIN OUT.
TONIGHT, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INITIALLY WILL THICKEN BACK UP AS
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS, UP TO 800MB, REMAINS. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE 60-65 RANGE WITH OVERALL MID 60S FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
WITH MID- LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AT
THE SURFACE. THE DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY, AND THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE. GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE SC BOTH DAYS WITH MID-
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDED A BIT TO THE EAST.
HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE CAPE FEAR REGION LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES AND A WAVE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MEAN ANYTHING THAT DOES
MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE SHALLOW AND QUITE LIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT WEEKEND AS DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS.
OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
TROUGH OFFSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE TROUGH THAT MOVED
INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CUTOFF LOW THAT
MEANDERS SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEAR THE EAST COAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS CREATES PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A WARMING TREND STARTING NEXT WEEKEND
AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A MVFR CEILING FOR ALL TERMINALS
THRU THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HRS OF TODAY. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND FOR NOW WILL
INDICATE SUB 1K FT CEILINGS THIS MORNING FOR THE ILM TERMINAL.
CEILINGS CONDITIONS SHOULD PEAK AT THEIR WORST THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW BUT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE SW TO
NE ACROSS NORTHEAST SC FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEAST NC. VFR SHOULD
BECOME DOMINATE BY MIDDAY HRS FOR THE SC TERMINALS AND MID TO
LATE AFTN FOR THE NC TERMINALS, WITH ILM THE LAST. WINDS
THRU LATE THIS AFTN WILL GENERALLY RUN NNW-NNE AROUND 10 KT
EXCEPT 10-15 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THEN DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KT AFTER DUSK.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER SAT
INTO SUN AS A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM THIS
MORNING. A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW
GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE
LOOKOUT AND CAPE HATTERAS. ITS PROGGED TO LIFT FURTHER NE, AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS, WHILE DRAGGING THE STALLED FRONT, NOW A
COLD FRONT, FURTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM
MAINLY THE N WILL RESULT IN THE SFC PG RELAXING-SOME. THIS
RESULTS IN NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING, BOTH
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK. COULD OBSERVE A MINI-SURGE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN THU HRS AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS BACK SOME BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA THRESHOLD WINDS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING AT 3 TO 6 FT, SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 5 FT,
HIGHEST CAPE FEAR NORTH, DURING TODAY. SEAS WILL HOLD IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE TONIGHT. WITH MORE OF AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY,
ESPECIALLY CAPE FEAR TO MURRELLS INLET, SEAS NEARSHORE MAYBE 1
FT OR LESS. FRESH/PSEUDO SWELL FROM THE NE AT 7 TO 8 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, 10-15 KTS THURSDAY INCREASING TO 15-20
KTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS FORECASTED FOR LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND TROUGH/LOW OFF THE COAST. SEAS 2-3 FT
THURSDAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS NE SWELL
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WINDS. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
FORECASTED ON SUNDAY IN WINDS AND SEAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
TIDES HIGHER THAN NORMAL INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST
NC AND NORTHEAST SC, INCLUDING THE BACK BAYS AND SOUNDS AND
ALONG THE INTRA- COASTAL WATERWAY, WILL RESIDE WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON
SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THRU THU THEN MAINLY THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE FRI INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
TODAY FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
TODAY FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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