624
FXUS62 KILM 111055
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN QUIET AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY, FIRST ACROSS NORTHEAST SC AND THEN
SOUTHEAST NC LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPS, WITH LOW 80S FORECASTED FOR NE SC AND UPPER 70S FOR THE CAPE
FEAR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 700MB, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IN THE LOW
LEVELS (LIKE THE CAMS ARE SHOWING) IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. HAVE
LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND GRAND STRAND
FOR LATER TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
LOW 60S, POTENTIALLY NEAR 60F ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY SHUNTING
ANY PRECIP TO THE SOUTH. A MID TO UPR LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ALOFT, SO ANTICIPATING MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVIOUS THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK THIS PERIOD. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD COMPARED TO THE SHORT
TERM WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. AFOREMENTIONED UPR-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST
LEAVING CONTINUED NORTHERLY DRY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO BELOW 800-700 MB, BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE
MEAGER, AND WITH THE LACK OF APPARENT FORCING MECHANISMS, A DRY
FORECAST REMAINS. TEMPS START TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WESTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
STAYING IN THE MID/UPR 80S THERE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW/MID 80S
NEAR THE COAST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING MOST OF NC AND
NORTHEAST SC IN MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. DUE TO
EXPANSIVE NATURE, AND REINFORCING FLOW DIRECTION, IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW DURING THE DAY. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECASTED BY LATE
MORNING, BUT VFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL 20Z OR LATER
ESPECIALLY FOR THE CAPE FEAR REGION (INCLUDING KILM). ONCE THE
STRATUS DOES BREAK UP (STARTING WITH NE SC), VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NNE THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST NC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT DUE TO
NORTHEAST SWELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM. EXPECT
NE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
BOTH THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKEN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TIDES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECTED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC,
INCLUDING THE BACK BAYS AND SOUNDS AND ALONG THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERWAY, WILL RESIDE WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES GOING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH MAINLY THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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