450
FXUS62 KILM 111837
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
237 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN QUIET AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, EXTENSIVE STRATUS BLANKETS MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF MIDDAY WITH A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND KEEPING A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
SUPPLY OF CLOUDS FLOWING IN FROM EASTERN NC. WITH TIME AND MORE
HEATING OF THE GROUND THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET IS QUESTIONABLE. THE
GREATEST RELATIVE CLEARING APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN WESTERN AREAS NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK (WHICH IS JUST WEST OF I-95 AT THIS
TIME), WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING BETWEEN I-95 AND A
FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
MUCH SUN OCCURS, BUT UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE STILL EXPECTED.
HI-RES GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WORK THEIR WAY DOWN THIS EVENING,
HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES OUT FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION, THE RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT OR CALM WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY, A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PIVOT DOWN
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ITS AXIS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST, LEADING TO INCREASED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY, OWING TO CONTINUED DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND OR TWO OF NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CLOUD BANDS MAY FORM AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER CERTAIN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER OTHER
AREAS. HIGHS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH
LOW TO MID 80S FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE WEEKEND. PCP WATER VALUES
DROP BELOW AN INCH AS DRY AIR PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO
SAT MORNING AND AGAIN INTO SUN MORNING. ANY MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OFF THE COAST AND MAY SEE A BIT WORK ITS WAY ONSHORE SAT
AFTN, BUT MAINLY IN THE WAY OF FLAT AFTN CU STUCK UNDER
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN NE SFC
FLOW WITH HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 80 AND 85 WITH LOWS IN THE 60 TO
65 RANGE MOST PLACES WITH UPPER 50S INLAND, ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY SUNDAY, A TRAILING WEAK TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD REACH DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. THIS HAPPENS AS ONE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND ANOTHER BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA
BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH MAINTAINING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME
TIME A TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS EXTENDING DOWN THE
EAST COAST DEEPENS A BIT AND HELPS TO SPAWN A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO MON. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS
AND A BIT OF PCP ALONG THE COAST BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE N.
MODELS SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH WHICH COULD
THROW SOME CLOUDS AND PCP OUR WAY, BUT TOO SOON TO TELL. TEMPS
WILL NEAR NORMAL MOST DAYS, BUT MON SHOULD BE LOWER DUE TO
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCP. HIGHS 80 TO 85 AND LOWS 60 TO 65 MOST
PLACES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK AND LIFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS HANGING ON THE LONGEST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL JUMPS TO VFR ARE POSSIBLE AS BREAKS
MOVE OVER THE COASTAL TERMINALS, AND OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE INLAND IF A CLOUD STREET MOVES OVER A TERMINAL. OTHERWISE,
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING DOWNWARD SHOULD CLEAR SKIES OUT
THIS EVENING, LEAVING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS INLAND POSES A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST MVFR MIST, AND HAVE OPTED TO ADD THESE IN FOR
THE INLAND TERMINALS ONLY. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TIGHTENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS BURN OFF, STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TAKE OVER, WITH
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ANY STRATUS OR
STRATOCUMULUS WHICH FORMS DURING THE MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON SHOULD END
UP BETWEEN 4-6KFT, PRECLUDING ANY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. OTHERWISE, PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY FROM
NORTHERLY TODAY TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SPEEDS WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AND
SEAS UP TO AROUND 6 FT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY IN OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY TO THE
INCREASING WINDS, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 8-9 SEC WILL BE REPLACED BY AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WIND
WAVE AND SWELL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS LATE FRI, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, NO HEADLINES WILL EXIST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TIDES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECTED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST
SC WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE GOING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH
MAINLY THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
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