498
FXUS62 KILM 121056
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
656 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN QUIET AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR TODAY, WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IN
STORE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS THAT
WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY AROUND 82-85F.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE AND WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST INTO MISSISSIPPI, AND IS FORECASTED
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. HOWEVER, WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH THERE WON'T BE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE
ASSOCIATED PVA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALMOST OVERHEAD WILL BRING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
NEAR I-95 AND LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. BELOW CLIMO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LACK
OF ANY FOCUSED FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ALSO PRECLUDE RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH
NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LWR 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
PREVIOUSLY WAS ANTICIPATING A DRY FORECAST BUT A COMPLICATING
FACTOR NOW IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOSED
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST. HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING, AS WELL AS ONSHORE MOISTURE FEED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THESE FEATURES. WILL BETTER FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER, AS ITS POSSIBLE EITHER THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN
WAVE THAT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE KEEPING THE AREA DRY, OR A
STRONGER LOW COULD MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LINGERING FOG WEST OF I-95 (IMPACTING KBBP) WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
TAF PERIOD, WITH FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE DAY
AROUND 4-6 KFT. NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR
10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. OTHERWISE, PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT TODAY
BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE, AND
THEREFORE NNE WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS RESPOND IN TURN, BUILDING TO 4-6 FT ACROSS
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS NE SWELL BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT NE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20
KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING IN FROM THE NORTH. GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER THROUGH MIDWEEK, THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SE COAST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
TIDES HIGHER THAN NORMAL INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEAST
NC AND NORTHEAST SC WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE GOING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH MAINLY THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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