152
FXUS62 KILM 121804
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
204 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN QUIET AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD, COMPRESSING THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE. WITH
INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT, FOG IS UNLIKELY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
KEEP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS A GENERAL GRADIENT FROM UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
ALONG THE COAST.
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE SC COAST SHOULD PUSH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY,
BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE VORTICITY ALOFT WILL ATTEMPT TO EXTRACT WHATEVER AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH A CHANCE OF REMNANT SPRINKLES INLAND. BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NC. PRECIP RATES
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NON-INTRUSIVE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN...A HALLMARK OF THE
CHANGE OF SEASONS CONTINUES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOBBLING/MEANDERING MID LEVEL LOW IS STUCK SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OR JUST INLAND WHILE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL OFFSHORE. SOME
GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND OR POPS INLAND
AND THE FORECAST ADDRESSES THIS MORESO MONDAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
OFFSHORE FOR NOW THERE SHOULD'T BE THE PERSISTENT GRAY SKIES WE
EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE CONFIDENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH NUMBERS AROUND NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AS WELL. A TREND TOWARD
DRIER CONDITIONS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS STEADY-STATE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR TODAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD PREVENT ANY EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. OTHERWISE, PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A
SURGE OF NE WINDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
AND PRODUCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AN SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, THE GRADIENT COLLAPSES AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH
WEAKENS. A COMBINATION OF SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED SEAS. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP BELOW 6 FEET FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD BETWEEN THE END OF THE SCA AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SCA MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF
NE WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
THE FORECAST AND FAIRLY POTENT AS WELL WITH THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY PROBABLY CONTINUING. THE FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKER IN
TIME AND BUT PROBABLY CONTINUE FROM THE NE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
4-6 FEET EARLY IN THE PERIOD DROPPING SLOWLY THEREAFTER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TIDES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECTED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC
WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM
WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH MAINLY
THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SHK/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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