374
FXUS62 KILM 130621
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR TODAY WITH THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE, WHILE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE STAY WELL OFFSHORE. NE FLOW KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 80S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST
AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL OFFSHORE. THE MAIN OCCURRENCE DURING
THE SHORT TERM IS THAT THE TROUGH WEAKLY CUTS OFF AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
LOCKS IN THE NE FLOW AND KEEPS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
IN PLACE. GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THIS
OCCURS. BLENDED GUIDANCE, AND THUS OUR FORECAST, HAS LOW END
CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY. GIVEN
THE OFFSHORE DISTANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THESE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS BY BOTH DAY
AND NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SLOW TO OPEN UP
BACK INTO A WAVE AND LIFT OUT, POSSIBLY TAKING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
TO DO SO. SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM ANY GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS
THAT THIS MEANS RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY SEEMS RATHER UNREALISTIC AS
THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAR TOO OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER A WEAK
SENSE OF TROUGHINESS LINGERS AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. BY MIDWEEK WE LOSE THE LONG STANDING NEERLY
BREEZE AND MAY EVEN SEE A SMALL WARMUP. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE DIVING INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BUT IT WILL BE TOO DEPRIVED OF
MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. 5-10 KT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION, AND THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS
YESTERDAY WITH NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT AND DRY WEATHER, WITH ANY
STRATOCU CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AREAS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS SLACKEN INLAND. OTHERWISE,
PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER ALL COASTAL
WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH 6 FT
SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER PORTION OF THE MARINE
ZONES, WITH GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT AS WELL. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LOW OVERHEAD AND AN
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A MODERATELY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY TO START THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS THE 6FT SEAS LIE OUTSIDE
OF THE 20NM ZONES ESP IN SC WATERS. THE UPPER LOW AND OFFSHORE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE SO BREEZY BUT SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. WIND
WAVES AND SWELL ENERGY WILL BE ALIGNED OUT OF THE NE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD, WITH A A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH TOWARDS ITS END.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NC AND
NORTHEAST SC WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE TODAY, AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY AND
SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY.
- RIP CURRENTS: EIGHT SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE IN
HEIGHT TODAY, CREATING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES JUST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS SWELL
SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WELL-ALIGNED TO CREATE PROBLEMS AT THE
PENDER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF
ZONE COULD REACH 4 FEET BETWEEN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND FORT
FISHER.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NCZ107.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
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