500
FXUS62 KILM 131810
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING FAR INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS VEILING THE AREA AS A SOUTHERLY
MID-UPPER FLOW PULLS DEBRIS CLOUDS OUT OF THE BAHAMAS, WHERE
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
CLOSED LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING SHAPE AND A CIRCULATION
SHOULD BE NOTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
WELL OFFSHORE. STEADY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF
THIS PRESSURE PATTERN AND WILL KEEP A FLOW OF RELATIVELY COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY, WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN LEADING TO
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE A SLACKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AGAIN LATER IN THE
NIGHT, LEADING TO WINDS PICKING UP BEFORE DAWN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. IN ADDITION, HIGH CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR FOG AND LOW
STRATUS LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.
ON SUNDAY, MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE AREA HELPING TO
FUNNEL THESE CLOUDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS, SUPPORTING A STEADY NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST WIND WITH SOME GUSTINESS DEVELOPING AROUND MID-MORNING.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP LOWER CLOUDS LIMITED, BUT SOME
STRATOCUMULUS OR ALTOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THE
BROAD MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE. SHOWER COVERAGE MORE OR LESS
REMAINS UNCHANGED AS WELL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER FOR
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST MID TO
LATE WEEK. THE PERIOD IS NOW ALL BUT DRY WITH ONLY RESIDUAL POPS
WHICH ARE LOW CONFIDENCE ANYWAY VERY EARLY. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL TURN BRIEFLY FROM THE NORTHWEST/DOWNSLOPING THEN RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL MORE CONCENTRATED ON HIGHS. THE LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT
OF THE AIR WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO APPROACH SEASONAL VALUES
HOWEVER.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR ANY LINGERING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS AT THE
MYRTLES, WHICH SHOULD LIFT ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS HEATING DEEPENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RAISES CLOUD
BASES. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING INLAND, EXPECT THEM
TO PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG CONCERNS, AND LOW
STRATUS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IMPACT AT ANY TERMINAL LATE IN
THE NIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY/INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING, BUT DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL, THUS KEEPING
CONFIDENCE LOW IN ANY PERSISTENT MVFR RESTRICTIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONTINUES.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... STEADY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AND A WEAK LOW MEANDERS
WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS SHIELDED FROM THE NORTHEAST WINDS WEST OF CAPE FEAR, WHERE
2-4 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS DECLINE TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT LOOSENS, AND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z TOMORROW. THE
LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE NORTHEAST WINDS MEANS AN 8 SEC
SWELL WILL BE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS, WITH
NORTHEAST WIND WAVES SPRINKLED ON TOP OF THESE SWELLS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BASICALLY THE TERM OF
THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 15-20 KNOTS INITIALLY
LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT TRENDING DOWN TO 10-15 KNOTS THEREAFTER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 4-5 FEET INITIALLY DIMINISHING BY MIDWEEK
TO 2-3 FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NC AND
NORTHEAST SC WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE TODAY, AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY AND
SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY.
- RIP CURRENTS: EIGHT SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE IN
HEIGHT TODAY, CREATING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES JUST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS SWELL
SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WELL-ALIGNED TO CREATE PROBLEMS AT THE
PENDER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF
ZONE COULD REACH 4 FEET BETWEEN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND FORT
FISHER.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...SHK/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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