515
FXUS62 KILM 140015
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
815 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ALONG WITH
MEANDERING OFFSHORE LOW WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NE WINDS
AT TIMES, CONTINUED DRY WEATHER UNDER VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND.
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS
OVERHEAD.
UPDATE
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY TRENDS, WITH EXPANDING ONSHORE
AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF CLOUDS, IE. CIRRUS AND HIGH ALTOCU, WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO SUN ACROSS THE AREA.
MAY SEE STRATOCU MOVE ONSHORE IF THE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTIONS
VEER SLIGHTLY TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR, TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF 70S SSTS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING FAR INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS VEILING THE AREA AS A SOUTHERLY
MID-UPPER FLOW PULLS DEBRIS CLOUDS OUT OF THE BAHAMAS, WHERE
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
CLOSED LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING SHAPE AND A CIRCULATION
SHOULD BE NOTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
WELL OFFSHORE. STEADY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF
THIS PRESSURE PATTERN AND WILL KEEP A FLOW OF RELATIVELY COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY, WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN LEADING TO
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE A SLACKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AGAIN LATER IN THE
NIGHT, LEADING TO WINDS PICKING UP BEFORE DAWN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. IN ADDITION, HIGH CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR FOG AND LOW
STRATUS LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.
ON SUNDAY, MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE AREA HELPING TO
FUNNEL THESE CLOUDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS, SUPPORTING A STEADY NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST WIND WITH SOME GUSTINESS DEVELOPING AROUND MID-MORNING.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP LOWER CLOUDS LIMITED, BUT SOME
STRATOCUMULUS OR ALTOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THE
BROAD MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE. SHOWER COVERAGE MORE OR LESS
REMAINS UNCHANGED AS WELL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER FOR
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST MID TO
LATE WEEK. THE PERIOD IS NOW ALL BUT DRY WITH ONLY RESIDUAL POPS
WHICH ARE LOW CONFIDENCE ANYWAY VERY EARLY. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL TURN BRIEFLY FROM THE NORTHWEST/DOWNSLOPING THEN RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL MORE CONCENTRATED ON HIGHS. THE LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT
OF THE AIR WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO APPROACH SEASONAL VALUES
HOWEVER.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE 24 HR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED WITH NO LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT WITH THE LATEST GFSLAMPGUIDANCE
DICTATING SO. SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP UPPER TROF ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS GA-SC AREA LATER SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS POSITIONING MAY DRAW IN DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SE NC AND NE SC LATER IN THE
DAY AND BEYOND THE 24 HRS. AT THIS POINT WILL INDICATE A VEIL OF
CI ACROSS THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL AC/SC AT THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT N-NE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT
TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT FEW/OCCASIONAL G20 KT AFTER 14Z,
ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONTINUES BUT DEPENDENT ON
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW, MVFR CLOUDS MAY GET DRAWN ACROSS
THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... STEADY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AND A WEAK LOW MEANDERS
WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS SHIELDED FROM THE NORTHEAST WINDS WEST OF CAPE FEAR, WHERE
2-4 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS DECLINE TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT LOOSENS, AND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z TOMORROW. THE
LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE NORTHEAST WINDS MEANS AN 8 SEC
SWELL WILL BE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS, WITH
NORTHEAST WIND WAVES SPRINKLED ON TOP OF THESE SWELLS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BASICALLY THE TERM OF
THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 15-20 KNOTS
INITIALLY LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT TRENDING DOWN TO 10-15
KNOTS THEREAFTER. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 4-5 FEET INITIALLY
DIMINISHING BY MIDWEEK TO 2-3 FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NC AND
NORTHEAST SC WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE THRU SUN.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM
WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE THRU MON.
DUE TO PERSISTENT AND MODEST NE WINDS CONTINUING SUN, EXPECT THE
CONTINUATION OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH LONGSHORE CURRENT ALONG
THE PENDER, NEW HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH
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