915
FXUS62 KILM 141028
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INLAND WITH OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO MID WEEK, POSSIBLY BRINGING
SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN LATER IN
THE WEEK WITH WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.
UPDATE
MARINE SECTION UPDATED BELOW FOR HEADLINE CHANGES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TAP FOR YOUR SUNDAY COURTESY OF
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE, BUT ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF FOR ONE MORE DAY AS LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY. OTHERWISE, NNE FLOW CONTINUES, GUSTY AT TIMES RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS AGAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER...HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR/NORTH
OF WILMINGTON
*BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE
DETAILS: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REVOLVING AROUND THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND HOW CLOSE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER GET
TO SE NC AND NE SC. AS OF NOW THE BEST RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR CLOSER TO THE LOW BUT
SOME WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING AS WELL. MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER END AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE NEAR 80 MON AND MID TO UPPER 70S TUE WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*WARMING TREND W/ TEMPS GETTING BACK CLOSE TO AND EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL LATE WEEK
*NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY WED SHOULD START TO GIVE
WAY TO MORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING TEMPS AND PRETTY LOW RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. PERSISTENT N-NE WINDS
AT 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE HIGH CLOUDS, WITH SOME LOWER
ALTOCU POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONTINUES BUT DEPENDENT ON
POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LOW...MVFR CLOUDS MAY GET DRAWN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SEAS UP TO 6 FT CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE NC MARINE ZONES THIS MORNING, WHILE THE SC
MARINE ZONES ARE SEEING ONLY 3-5 FT SEAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NOW THROUGH MONDAY, SO THE SCA HAS BEEN ENDED OVER SC
WATERS, AND EXTENDED THROUGH THE END OF THE THIRD PERIOD OVER NC
WATERS. THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF THE NE WINDS MEANS AN 8-9
SEC SWELL WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS.
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, SO THE SEAS ARE THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE MARINE HEADLINES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PERSIST INLAND
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIKELY TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO MID
WEEK. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED THROUGH MON NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NC
WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN NORMAL TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEAST NC COAST, AND POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHEAST SC COAST, WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM
WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MON.
DUE TO PERSISTENT AND MODEST NE WINDS CONTINUING TODAY, EXPECT
THE CONTINUATION OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH LONGSHORE CURRENT
ALONG THE PENDER, NEW HANOVER, AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...RJB/MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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