900
FXUS62 KILM 141821
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INLAND WITH OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO MID WEEK, POSSIBLY BRINGING
SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN LATER IN
THE WEEK WITH WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL SIT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND
THE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL LEAD TO AN OVERNIGHT N-NE BREEZE THAT
SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY. LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH THE BREEZE
AND SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS, FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. AFTER
SUNRISE BREEZY N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS ~20-25 MPH. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE SKEWED TOWARDS SE NC
WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW, AND NE SC COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS IN NE SC COULD REACH NEAR 80 WHILE SE
NC SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW/BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE HAS BEEN A
LEAN IN GUIDANCE WITH THE MORE EXTENSIVE AXIS/BETTER FORCING AREA
FOR RAIN TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST POP FORECAST IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS
TREND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
BASICALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STUBBORN MID
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LIFTS OUT SLOWLY. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN
TRANSITION FROM TO A VERY POORLY DEFINED CONFIGURATION TO PERHAPS
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED THE
LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON WHAT APPEARS TO
BE MORE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT/MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY HIGHS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR. N-NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING 15-20 KTS UNTIL ~23Z WITH A
BREEZE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ~5-7 KTS. THE BREEZE + HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT, AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS. INTO MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, PRIMARILY
FOR SE NC, AS A LOW PASSES TO OUR N-NE. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD BE
IMPACTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO SHOWERS, WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SLOW LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE AREA. CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, MOVING CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND TO OUR NORTH PRIMARILY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE A GRADIENT IN WINDS OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE NC WATERS
SEEING HIGHER GUSTS AND WAVES, SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SC WATERS WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY REDUCED PG,
WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS BUT N-NE WINDS STILL ~15-20 KTS
SUSTAINED AND SEAS 2-4 FT. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
FOR OUR SE NC WATERS AS WELL, PRIMARILY ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO LATER TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL SHOULD BE OFFSHORE AND
PROBABLY TO THE NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF
HEADLINE CRITERIA AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A
BIT IN TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD WINDS WILL ACQUIRE AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT BUT WEAK THEN ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FEET EARLY DROPPING IN TIME TO 2-3 FEET.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE FULL MOON AND ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN NORMAL TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEAST NC COAST, AND POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHEAST SC COAST, WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM
WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MON.
DUE TO PERSISTENT AND MODEST NE WINDS CONTINUING TODAY, EXPECT
THE CONTINUATION OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH LONGSHORE CURRENT
ALONG THE PENDER, NEW HANOVER, AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...SHK/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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