291
FXUS62 KILM 142356
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
756 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INLAND WITH OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO MID WEEK, LIKELY BRINGING SOME
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS, ALTHOUGH DID
UPDATE THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL SIT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND
THE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL LEAD TO AN OVERNIGHT N-NE BREEZE THAT
SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY. LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH THE BREEZE
AND SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS, FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. AFTER
SUNRISE BREEZY N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS ~20-25 MPH. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE SKEWED TOWARDS SE NC
WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW, AND NE SC COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS IN NE SC COULD REACH NEAR 80 WHILE SE
NC SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW/BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE HAS BEEN A LEAN IN
GUIDANCE WITH THE MORE EXTENSIVE AXIS/BETTER FORCING AREA FOR
RAIN TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST POP FORECAST IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS
TREND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
BASICALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STUBBORN MID LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH LIFTS OUT SLOWLY. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN
TRANSITION FROM TO A VERY POORLY DEFINED CONFIGURATION TO
PERHAPS SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS
MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON
WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT/MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY HIGHS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM INLAND, ALTHOUGH DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
MOVING INTO KILM TOWARD 12Z AS MOISTURE WRAPS SOUTHWARD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SPREAD
S AND W TOWARD KCRE/KMYR AND LIKELY KLBT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVING ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY AT KILM. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AT
KILM/KCRE/KLBT, GREATEST AT KILM. OTHERWISE, GUSTY N WINDS TO
NEAR 25 KT EXPECTED, MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SLOW LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE AREA. CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND O OUR NORTH PRIMARILY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE A GRADIENT IN WINDS OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE NC WATERS
SEEING HIGHER GUSTS AND WAVES, SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SC WATERS WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY REDUCED
PG, WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS BUT N-NE WINDS STILL
~15-20 KTS SUSTAINED AND SEAS 2-4 FT. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHER FOR OUR SE NC WATERS AS WELL, PRIMARILY ON
MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO LATER TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL SHOULD BE OFFSHORE AND
PROBABLY TO THE NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF
HEADLINE CRITERIA AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A
BIT IN TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD WINDS WILL ACQUIRE AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT BUT WEAK THEN ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FEET EARLY DROPPING IN TIME TO 2-3 FEET.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOCATIONS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM
WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MON.
DUE TO PERSISTENT AND MODEST NE WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY,
EXPECT THE CONTINUATION OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH LONGSHORE
CURRENT ALONG THE PENDER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB/LEW
MARINE...SHK/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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