136
FXUS62 KILM 111056
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
656 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, AND HAZARDOUS
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF GA AND NORTHEASTERN FL WILL
PUSH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE AND STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE LOW, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE A WEAK WEDGE OF COOLER AIR HAS
PRODUCED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. SOME RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN NC LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. HREF PMM 24-HOUR QPF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 2-3 INCH TOTALS
ALONG AND EAST OF US-701 THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, SO
HIGHER TOTALS MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRENDS.
WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN, NE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN AROUND 50 MILES
OF THE COAST. WINDS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE
ROUGH SURF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE SUNDAY
REMAINS LARGE. WHEN CONSIDERING ALL ENSEMBLES, NBM BLENDS PIN THE
LOW ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AN IDEA BEING PUT FORWARD BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN IS
WE MAY NOT HAVE A SINGLE CONSOLIDATED LOW, BUT MULTIPLE CENTERS
SPREAD OUT FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FSU
CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SHOW THE SOUTHERN LOW COULD POSSESS A SHALLOW
WARM CORE UP UNTIL SUNDAY, HOWEVER ALL MODELS SHOW IT
ENCOUNTERING SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS INCREASING
HORIZONTAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS AS IT APPROACHES
CAPE FEAR, BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD HINDER THIS SYSTEM FROM BEING
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A MOIST CONVEYOR OF SURFACE-TO-700 MB MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD SUPPORT
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST WHERE I'VE
BUMPED POPS UP ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO AROUND 70 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY BASED MAINLY ON THE 00Z HREF. STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE VERY
TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER COULD ALLOW SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND I'LL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WHERE SREF PROBS
ARE HIGHEST. TEMPERATURES IN SOME INLAND SPOTS COULD REMAIN IN THE
60S ALL DAY DUE TO THICK CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE SHOULD THIN FROM THE TOP DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE 700 AND 850
MB TROUGH AXES MOVE OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
COULD REMAIN IN PLACE, HOWEVER, AS NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
STILL ADVECT AN ATLANTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA VIA ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND NEW JERSEY. MONDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE BEGINNING TUESDAY WILL BE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THEN SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A CANADIAN AIRMASS WITH LOW DEWPOINTS (40S AND 50S) AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR HAS STARTED TO CREEP INLAND WITH SOLID IFR ALONG THE
COAST. LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAY SHOULD BRING CIGS TO
NEAR MVFR, ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN HEAVY RAINFALL. MIX
OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TOWARD
IFR TONIGHT AS HEAVY RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE. LIFR IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WORSE CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE COAST WHERE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST.
WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS NEAR THE
COAST, GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
INLAND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF AN APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WINDS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE COAST FOR THE
START OF SUNDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... IMPACTS FROM THE NOR'EASTER ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF SUNDAY. VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF
GA AND NORTHEASTERN FL. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45
KNOTS AND INCREASING SEAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO LIMIT VISIBILITY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
PEAKING LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE
POSITIONS FOR THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY RANGING FROM
NEAR HATTERAS TO EAST OF SAVANNAH. ALL MODELS SHOW SURFACE
PRESSURES BELOW 1000 MB OFFSHORE. WHEN AVERAGING DOZENS OF MODEL
ENSEMBLES, THE NBM BLEND PLACES THE AVERAGE POSITION OF THE LOW
ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR SUNDAY MORNING, MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA WOULD CREATE NORTHERLY WINDS AT LEAST 25
KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY, BACKING NORTHWESTERLY
15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. IT'S WORTH
MENTIONING MANY OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT SHOW RAPID MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OUT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, INSTEAD STALLING IT
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE ADVERSE MARINE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO LINGER FOR AN ADDITIONAL 12-24 HOURS.
A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF
BERMUDA AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE'S A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY WE'LL NEED AT LEAST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
EASTERLY 10 SECOND SWELL SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WAVE COMPONENT
SUNDAY WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 5-8 FEET, HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 4-6 FEET MONDAY AND 2-4 FEET TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: 10 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS, CREATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT EAST FACING BEACHES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO CREATE A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH LONGSHORE CURRENT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
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