909
FXUS62 KILM 111839
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
239 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, AND HAZARDOUS
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN COULD FALL. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BLOSSOM INTO BECOMING A NOR'EASTER
IS STILL SLOWLY DEVELOPING, NOW EAST OF SAVANNAH. LAST NIGHT'S
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED STRONGER AND A TAD CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
MAIN RAMIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER QPF FOR INLAND LOCALES. THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS DRIVING THE SYSTEM IS STILL DIGGING, AND THIS APPEARS TO
GIVING GUIDANCE A HARD TIME RESOLVING WHETHER THE CURRENT INCIPIENT
LOW REMAINS DOMINANT OR A SECONDARY FORMS ON THE SYSTEM'S WARM
FRONT. LOCALLY THIS WON'T MATTER TOO MUCH, BUT THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION LOOKS A LITTLE SLOW EVEN IN SOLUTIONS LACKING A
SECONDARY LOW. SUNDAY'S POPS WILL THUS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY REALM,
THOUGH OVERALL QPF TREND REMAINS DOWNWARD STARTING AT ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
WILL BE MINIMIZED BY CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME MIXING WHEREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAY FALL OFF A BIT CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTH FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS
TO THE DELMARVA COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE H5 LOW WILL BE LOCATED
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THE BEST ENERGY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW, MAINLY FROM NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES FROM
PENDER TO ROBESON AND THEN INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. MAY SEE BEST
CHC OF PCP FROM I-95 AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY UNTIL
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PCP SPREADS EASTWARD AGAIN INTO SUN
NIGHT, BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AS DRYING OCCURS FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE AREA ON MON. THE DRIER AIR WILL FIRST ARRIVE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
HOLDING ON INTO MON MORNING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH MON AFTN. BY LATE MON THE TROUGH AXIS AT LOW TO MID
LEVELS WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW 60 SUN NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER BY MON NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MID 50S. HIGHS ON
MON SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S AS SUNSHINE INCREASES INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEK. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AND COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH A SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR BY
THURS AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH WED WITH NEAR 80 READINGS
INLAND BY WED AFTN. BY THURS, COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOWER END OF 70S. THIS DRY AIR
MASS WILL LEAD TO GREATER DIURNAL RANGES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S, DROPPING INTO THE 40S BY THURS NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST NO SURPRISE THAT WE'LL
HAVE MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
AND WELL, NORTHEASTERLY. SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS HAVE
LIFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN AS THEY WILL
VARY IN SEVERITY WITH TIME, THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND LOWEST
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO BE COASTAL TERMS AND ILM MORESO THAN
MYR/CRE WHERE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. WE'VE
INTRODUCED SOME LLWS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
FORMS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. THIS TOO IS OF FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT MAY BE INCORPORATING SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
THAT ARE TOO FAR WEST OF CURRENT THINKING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOLLOWING THE NOR'EASTER THE PROBABILITY OF
WEATHER IMPACTS WILL DECREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY VFR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...GALES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE STILL IN A CONSOLIDATING STATE EAST OF SAVANNAH, GA. NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE GALE WARNING. REASON
BEING AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LOW MOVES AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT WHETHER OR NOT IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY CENTER, WHICH
COULD REALLY SLOW THE STORM AND NECESSITATE A LONGER WARNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS
SUN EVE SHIFTING TO THE NW UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY MONDAY AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
SUN NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO BELOW CRITERIA BY LATE MON
WITH SEAS DROPPING FROM 5 TO 8 FT DOWN TO 3 TO 5 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LONG
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: 10 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS, CREATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT EAST FACING BEACHES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO CREATE A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH LONGSHORE CURRENT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
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