337
FXUS62 KILM 120128
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
928 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS
SURF AND MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN
AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NNE ALONG THE SC COAST
TONIGHT AND THE NC COAST SUN. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL,
UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. IMPROVING
WEATHER AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
1) HIGH SURF ADVISORY EXTENDED TO 8PM SUN FOR PENDER AND NEW
HANOVER COASTS.
2) HIGH RIPS AGAIN RAISED FOR CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD AND FROM
LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD FOR SUN. STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
LONGSHORE CURRENT ALSO ADVERTISED.
3) MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADV RAISED FOR THE IMMEDIATE NC
COASTLINE WITH TIDES RUNNING UP TO 0.5 FT ABOVE THE 6.0 FT MLLW
THRESHOLDS. THE DAYTIME SUN HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE HIER OF THE 2
WITH LEVELS POSSIBLY REACHING 1.0 FT ABOVE THRESHOLDS.
4) MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADV RAISED FOR THE LCFR, WILMINGTON AND
SOUTHWARD, AS FORECAST LEVELS BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE THE 5.5 FT MLLW
THRESHOLDS. THE DAYTIME SUN HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE HIER OF THE 2
WITH LEVELS 0.5 TO 1.0 FT ABOVE THRESHOLDS.
5) MWW FOR THE GALE WARNING UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 40+ KT
WIND GUSTS.
995MB SFC LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST NC COAST IS PROGGED
TO MOVE SLOWLY N-NNE, REACHING JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE FEAR
COAST BY DAYBREAK SUN. IT WILL RESUME A MORE NNE TRAJECTORY,
FOLLOWING THE REMAINDER OF THE NC COASTLINE THRU DAYBREAK MON.
AS A RESULT, GALES FOR THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH WIND GUSTS 40 TO POSSIBLY 45+ KT, ESPECIALLY 20 NM AND
BEYOND, A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THRU 6AM SUN. WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO
ILLUSTRATE 50 KT WINDS AT THE 925MB LEVEL AND EVEN HIER FURTHER
ALOFT. HAVE EXTENDED 100 POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT, ACCEPT FAR INLAND, ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE FA WILL
RECEIVE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
THIS WRITING INTO MON WILL RUN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC, MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE TIME DURATION THIS RAINFALL IS OCCURRING, STILL MAY
EXPECT THE USUAL NUISANCE/MINOR TYPE PONDING AND FLOODING ACROSS
LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH A DIURNAL RANGE OF GENERALLY 5 DEGREES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BLOSSOM INTO BECOMING A
NOR'EASTER IS STILL SLOWLY DEVELOPING, NOW EAST OF SAVANNAH.
LAST NIGHT'S GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED STRONGER AND A TAD CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THE MAIN RAMIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER QPF FOR INLAND
LOCALES. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE SYSTEM IS STILL
DIGGING, AND THIS APPEARS TO GIVING GUIDANCE A HARD TIME
RESOLVING WHETHER THE CURRENT INCIPIENT LOW REMAINS DOMINANT OR
A SECONDARY FORMS ON THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT. LOCALLY THIS WON'T
MATTER TOO MUCH, BUT THE OVERALL PROGRESSION LOOKS A LITTLE
SLOW EVEN IN SOLUTIONS LACKING A SECONDARY LOW. SUNDAY'S POPS
WILL THUS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY REALM, THOUGH OVERALL QPF TREND
REMAINS DOWNWARD STARTING AT ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT. THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE MINIMIZED
BY CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME MIXING WHEREAS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
FALL OFF A BIT CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTH FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS
TO THE DELMARVA COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE H5 LOW WILL BE LOCATED
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THE BEST ENERGY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW, MAINLY FROM NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES FROM
PENDER TO ROBESON AND THEN INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. MAY SEE BEST
CHC OF PCP FROM I-95 AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY UNTIL
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PCP SPREADS EASTWARD AGAIN INTO SUN
NIGHT, BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AS DRYING OCCURS FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE AREA ON MON. THE DRIER AIR WILL FIRST ARRIVE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
HOLDING ON INTO MON MORNING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH MON AFTN. BY LATE MON THE TROUGH AXIS AT LOW TO MID
LEVELS WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW 60 SUN NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER BY MON NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MID 50S. HIGHS ON
MON SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S AS SUNSHINE INCREASES INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE WEEK. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AND COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH A SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR BY
THURS AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH WED WITH NEAR 80 READINGS
INLAND BY WED AFTN. BY THURS, COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOWER END OF 70S. THIS DRY AIR MASS
WILL LEAD TO GREATER DIURNAL RANGES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S, DROPPING INTO THE 40S BY THURS NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER OFF THE NE SC COAST ATTM,
PROGGED TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST NC COAST SUN. IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND FOG TO DOMINATE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. PERIODICALLY,
CIGS MAY CLIMB JUST ABOVE 1K FT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
<1K FT TO DOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
KEPT VSBYS FROM -RA, RA AND BR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN THE 2SM
TO 6SM RANGE. EXPECT NNW-NNE 15KT G25 KT WINDS TO DOMINATE THRU
THE PERIOD, BECOMING NW LATE IN THE 24 HR PERIOD. SOME GUSTS TO
30+ KT LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW.
WITH 50+ KT SLATED JUST OFF THE DECK, IE 925MB, HAVE CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE THE LLWS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOLLOWING THE NOR'EASTER, THE PROBABILITY OF
WEATHER IMPACTS WILL DECREASE MON WITH GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LATE MON THRU THU.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...GALES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE STILL IN A CONSOLIDATING STATE EAST OF SAVANNAH, GA.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE GALE WARNING.
REASON BEING AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LOW MOVES
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WHETHER OR NOT IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
CENTER, WHICH COULD REALLY SLOW THE STORM AND NECESSITATE A
LONGER WARNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS
SUN EVE SHIFTING TO THE NW UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY MONDAY AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
SUN NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO BELOW CRITERIA BY LATE MON
WITH SEAS DROPPING FROM 5 TO 8 FT DOWN TO 3 TO 5 FT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: 10 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY, CREATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT EAST
FACING BEACHES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE A STRONG
NORTH TO SOUTH LONGSHORE CURRENT FOR PENDER AND NEW HANOVER
BEACHES ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY, BUT WINDS
WILL BE MORE OFFSHORE, WEAKENING THE LONGSHORE CURRENT.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COASTS, HAS
BEEN EXTENDED TO EARLY SUN EVENING DUE TO THE MUCH SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE WIND FIELD NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING THE SURF
ELEVATED AT 6 FT OR HIGHER.
LATEST PROGGED WATER LEVELS FOR BOTH JMPN7 AND WLON7 BREAKS THE
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS OF 6.0 FT MLLW AND 5.5 FT MLLW
RESPECTIVELY DURING TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE, THE LOWER OF THE 2 PER
DAY. AS A RESULT, MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
RAISED FOR THE 3 TO 4 HR WINDOW SURROUNDING THEIR RESPECTIVE
HIGH TIDES.`
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ106-108-
110.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRL/DCH
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