915
FXUS62 KILM 121902
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS, BREEZY WINDS, AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR CAPE FEAR. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
CHILLIEST AIR SINCE LAST APRIL SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
993MB COASTAL LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF NEW HANOVER/PENDER
COUNTIES AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. LIGHT RAIN, WITH POCKETS OR
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, WILL CONTINUE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW VERY SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD. FOLLOWING FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL NE SC THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY, ISOLATED
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR
WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS RECENTLY FALLEN.
TONIGHT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS
WHILE WEAKENING, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE LOW.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AROUND 60F WITH LINGERING BREEZY NNW WINDS. WHILE
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ALOFT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND A BIT ON MONDAY, KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDY TO START THE DAY.
LOW STRATUS WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST MIDDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS WITH ~75F FORECASTED AROUND I-95 CORRIDOR AND
~70F FORECASTED FOR PENDER AND NEW HANOVER, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
COOLER HIGH TEMPS IF STRATUS LINGERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE BREEZY MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW, OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THEN, BUT CERTAINLY WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO TODAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEATHER WILL TRANSITION INTO A QUIET MIDWEEK PERIOD AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CHC OF PCP. THE LATEST MODELS DO SHOW UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH
FROM GREAT LAKES INTO THE MAIN TROUGH/LOW MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN AND ROTATES AROUND INTO NC EARLY
TUES DRIVING SFC LOW BACK SOUTH, AND SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
MAINLY NC OR ILM SOUNDING. SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MEASURABLE PCP AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS INTO
EARLY TUES. PCP WATER DROPS TO LESS THAN AN INCH MON EVENING
WITH A RISE UP TO 1.3 INCHES TUES MORNING WITH DRYING AGAIN
LATE TUES INTO WED. OVERALL, EXPECT DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BASICALLY BE IN THE MID 50S AND HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S, BUT COULD SEE SOME TEMPS PUSHING 80 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PEE DEE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE DEEP LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE FARTHER AWAY DRAGGING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DOWN WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
BEHIND IT. A SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON THURS. PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN FROM NEARLY AN
INCH WED EVE TO AROUND .35 INCHES BY THURS AFTN AS DRY AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THURS THROUGH SAT WITH MUCH GREATER DIURNAL SWINGS. THE WINDS
SHOULD LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO AID IN SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THURS
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. DEWPOINT TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE 30S
THURS INTO FRI AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S THURS
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT MOST PLACES. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH INTO THE 70S WITH PLENTY OF OCTOBER SUNSHINE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH REACHING THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE BRINGING WARMING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE. BY SUNDAY, MOISTURE
WILL RISE FURTHER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD INCREASE THE
CHC OF PCP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, NOT EXPECTING ANY
PCP FROM THURS THROUGH EARLY SUN. TEMPS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO
THE MID 70S ON SAT AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 80 ON SUN.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 1000 FT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC WITH COASTAL LOW JUST OFF OF OUR
COAST. MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS AT LOCAL TERMINALS, WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR, ALONG WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITIES AS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL LATE
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR, WHILE INLAND TERMINALS WILL
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY END OF TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT,
BEFORE WEAKENING BY TOMORROW AS COASTAL LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY, ALBEIT
A LITTLE BREEZY. VFR EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...COASTAL LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF SE NC OVER
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS NE SC WATERS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS, WHILE GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE OFF SE NC COAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS DUE TO A CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20-25 KTS FORECASTED FOR ALL LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE OUTER
BANKS, WEAKENING FURTHER TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS 5-
9 FT CURRENTLY WILL ALSO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH 4-7 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND 4-5 FT FORECASTED BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON AND OFF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
VARIABLE VISIBILITIES OVER THE WATERS, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDER
THREAT. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MON NIGHT SHOULD SHIFT A
BIT SOUTH AGAIN INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT. NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KTS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT WILL
INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT ON THURS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 3
TO 5 FT DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY WED, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN BACK
TO 3 TO 5 FT ON THURS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: 10 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, CREATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT EAST FACING
BEACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY, BUT WILL SHIFT TO
BECOME MORE OFFSHORE, WEAKENING THE LONGSHORE CURRENT. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COASTS, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY'S HIGH TIDE
FOR THE BEACHES, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RGZ/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page