355
FXUS62 KILM 122340
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS, BREEZY WINDS, AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR CAPE FEAR. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
CHILLIEST AIR SINCE LAST APRIL SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.
UPDATE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING NORTH THIS EVENING. FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INCORPORATE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTH. THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT SET UP ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE LINE HAS WEAKENED, SUGGESTING THE FLOODING THREAT IS
STARTING TO DECREASE (HOWEVER A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PART OF THE AREA). THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE 2 AREAS
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING RAINFALL, ACROSS
NORTHERN HORRY AND WESTERN FLORENCE COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS
IN THESE AREAS THE BANDING IS MOVING MORE AND IS WEAKER, OWING
TO THE DECREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. SO WHILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN, AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
993MB COASTAL LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF NEW HANOVER/PENDER
COUNTIES AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. LIGHT RAIN, WITH POCKETS OR
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, WILL CONTINUE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW VERY SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD. FOLLOWING FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL NE SC THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY, ISOLATED
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR
WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS RECENTLY FALLEN.
TONIGHT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS
WHILE WEAKENING, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE LOW.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AROUND 60F WITH LINGERING BREEZY NNW WINDS. WHILE
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ALOFT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND A BIT ON MONDAY, KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDY TO START THE DAY.
LOW STRATUS WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST MIDDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS WITH ~75F FORECASTED AROUND I-95 CORRIDOR AND
~70F FORECASTED FOR PENDER AND NEW HANOVER, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
COOLER HIGH TEMPS IF STRATUS LINGERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE BREEZY MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW, OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THEN, BUT CERTAINLY WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO TODAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEATHER WILL TRANSITION INTO A QUIET MIDWEEK PERIOD AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CHC OF PCP. THE LATEST MODELS DO SHOW UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH
FROM GREAT LAKES INTO THE MAIN TROUGH/LOW MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN AND ROTATES AROUND INTO NC EARLY
TUES DRIVING SFC LOW BACK SOUTH, AND SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
MAINLY NC OR ILM SOUNDING. SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MEASURABLE PCP AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS INTO
EARLY TUES. PCP WATER DROPS TO LESS THAN AN INCH MON EVENING
WITH A RISE UP TO 1.3 INCHES TUES MORNING WITH DRYING AGAIN
LATE TUES INTO WED. OVERALL, EXPECT DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BASICALLY BE IN THE MID 50S AND HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S, BUT COULD SEE SOME TEMPS PUSHING 80 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PEE DEE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE DEEP LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE FARTHER AWAY DRAGGING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DOWN WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
BEHIND IT. A SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON THURS. PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN FROM NEARLY AN
INCH WED EVE TO AROUND .35 INCHES BY THURS AFTN AS DRY AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THURS THROUGH SAT WITH MUCH GREATER DIURNAL SWINGS. THE WINDS
SHOULD LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO AID IN SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THURS
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. DEWPOINT TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE 30S
THURS INTO FRI AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S THURS
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT MOST PLACES. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH INTO THE 70S WITH PLENTY OF OCTOBER SUNSHINE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH REACHING THE CAROLINA
COAST BY SAT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE BRINGING WARMING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE. BY SUNDAY, MOISTURE
WILL RISE FURTHER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD INCREASE THE
CHC OF PCP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, NOT EXPECTING ANY
PCP FROM THURS THROUGH EARLY SUN. TEMPS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO
THE MID 70S ON SAT AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 80 ON SUN.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND LOSS
OF HEATING/MIXING HAS ALLOWED CEILING THAT WERE MARGINALLY INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR MOST
TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE LONG DURATION OF IFR CEILINGS WITH
OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY AS PATCHES OF RAIN/MIST AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST IF THEY HAVEN'T ALREADY DONE SO. CLOUDS
AND IFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND MON, WITH THE FIRST BREAKS
APPEARING ACROSS INLAND SC THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. VFR RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...COASTAL LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF SE NC OVER
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS NE SC WATERS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS, WHILE GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE OFF SE NC COAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS DUE TO A CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20-25 KTS FORECASTED FOR ALL LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE OUTER
BANKS, WEAKENING FURTHER TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS 5-
9 FT CURRENTLY WILL ALSO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH 4-7 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND 4-5 FT FORECASTED BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON AND OFF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
VARIABLE VISIBILITIES OVER THE WATERS, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDER
THREAT. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MON NIGHT SHOULD SHIFT A
BIT SOUTH AGAIN INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT. NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KTS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT WILL
INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT ON THURS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 3
TO 5 FT DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY WED, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN BACK
TO 3 TO 5 FT ON THURS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: 10 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, CREATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT EAST FACING
BEACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY, BUT WILL SHIFT TO
BECOME MORE OFFSHORE, WEAKENING THE LONGSHORE CURRENT. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COASTS, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY'S HIGH TIDE
FOR THE BEACHES, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III/VAO
MARINE...RGZ/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
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