683
FXUS62 KILM 131035
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH THE CHILLIEST AIR SINCE LAST
APRIL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
NO CHANGES WITH THE 7 AM EDT UPDATE. ROUTINE AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SC COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE. REMNANT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN SOUTHEASTERN
NC, REMOVED FROM THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. THESE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW DRIFTS OFFSHORE. DRIZZLE OUTSIDE OF THESE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EARLY THIS MORNING
AS VISIBILITY IS REDUCED AND ROAD REMAIN SLICK. NO SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND OF RAIN.
PRECIP FINALLY COMES TO AN END THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING THE LOW WILL SHIELD LOW CLOUDS FROM SCOURING, SO EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD START TO APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR OVERPOWERS
THE REMAINING MOISTURE LAYERS. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS A
RESULT. LOWER 70S (POSSIBLY UPPER 60S) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH LOW TO AS WARM AS MID 70S INLAND.
CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE INVERSION ALOFT AND SATURATED
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL DAMPEN BOTH TUESDAY MORNING MOODS AND THE
DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*RAIN CHANCES: MAINLY ZERO, ALTHOUGH DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUE (MAINLY IN NC)
*TEMPS: NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE:
*HIGH
DETAILS: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WED NIGHT. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD LEAD TO DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
TUE, ESPECIALLY IN NC. OTHERWISE, COLDER/DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE WED
NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPS POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SPOTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*RAIN CHANCES: MAINLY ZERO
*TEMPS: BELOW NORMAL THRU SAT, THEN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRY AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE THU NIGHT WHEN LOWER 40S ARE
LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL SPOTS. WARMER AND MOISTER
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, WITH EVEN A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER INLAND LATE SUN.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH INCREASINGLY DRY
AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR
FOR ALL TERMINALS BY THE AFTERNOON AND VFR LATER TODAY,
INCLUDING A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET. GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS THIS MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GRADIENT COLLAPSING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT BENEATH THE
INVERSION. LAMP PROBS HAVE DECREASED IN SUCCESSIVE RUNS, SO I
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING DUE TO SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FEET AND WINDS OVER NC WATERS
AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH
FOR GUSTS TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RETURN BELOW 6 FEET. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING SHOULD CLOSE THE BOOK ON ANY REMAINING ADVISORIES. SEAS
RETURN TO AROUND 2-4 FEET TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES INTO THU, ESPECIALLY IN THE NC WATERS, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTH AND MORE OVERHEAD LEADING TO A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,
CREATING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR,
WITH ONLY A LOW TO MODERATE RISK SOUTH OF THERE THROUGH
GEORGETOWN COUNTY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
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