270
FXUS62 KILM 132104
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
504 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND. A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST
AIR SINCE SPRING. THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE ANOTHER
WARMUP UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY.
UPDATE
UPDATE TO WATCH WARNING ADVISORY SECTION TO END COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR INLAND NEW HANOVER AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET, SC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF OF CAPE FEAR, WITH LOW STRATUS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL SLOWLY SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA, WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S AND CALM WINDS.
THE MAIN FORECAST FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PVA DIGGING DOWN
ACROSS EASTERN NC EARLY-MIDDAY TUESDAY. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL
STILL BE PRESENT ABOVE 700MB, THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND DECENT
MOISTURE BELOW 700MB LOOKS BE ENOUGH TO BRING BACK MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TO THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR
REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECENT HIGH TEMP GRADIENT OF
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES TUESDAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR OUR WEST/NORTHWEST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN CLOUD COVER AND LOWER IN DRIZZLE/RAIN CHANCES, SO AT THE
MOMENT POPS ARE MINIMAL BUT THAT MIGHT CHANGE WITH THE NEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, MAINLY IN THE CAPE FEAR
REGION, WILL SCOUR OUT AS A LARGE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. IT
WILL BE A BREEZY AND WELL MIXED NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE LOWS. WINDS
DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA WILL
BE OFFSET BY NEAR FULL SUN FOR HIGHS IN THE SEASONABLE MID 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE RAIN-FREE LONG TERM WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR FLOOD-
STRICKEN AREAS FROM THE RECENT NOR'EASTER TO DRY OUT. A COLD FRONT
SLIPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH NO MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF IT
THERE ARE NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MOST PLACES WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT 70 ON THURSDAY AND THE NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE APRIL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL MIRROR THURSDAY'S VERY
CLOSELY BUT THE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RECOVER A BIT AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LIGHTEST SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A LATE PERIOD WARMUP. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
DUE MONDAY AND IT SHOULD OFFER RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR STRATUS IS SLOW TO ERODE AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW
TO EXIT THE AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLEARING ACROSS
CENTRAL CAROLINAS, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LBT AND FLO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE
NEXT 2 HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AROUND 22/23Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MVFR STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD FOR SE
NC TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO 5
KTS OR LESS AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER SUNSET, WITH 15 KT GUSTS
RETURNING TUESDAY MIDDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT SE NC TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS AS WEAKENED LOW PRESSURE OFF OF OUR COAST SLOWLY
EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT. SCA WILL END FOR NE SC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE IT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 3Z THIS EVENING FOR SE
NC WATERS DUE TO PROLONGED 6 FT SEAS MAINLY FOR THE 10-20NM ZONE OFF
OF THE COAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO 2-4 FT BY TUESDAY
MORNING, COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND NW WIND CHOP. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE NNW THROUGH TUESDAY, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL A BIT
STRONG TUESDAY NIGHT BUT HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED AS GUSTS TO 25KT
SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT AND SEAS WILL BE CAPPED AT 5 FT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE GRADIENT OVER LAND AS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES BUT THIS NEVER TRANSLATES TO THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING THURSDAY'S WINDS BACK UP
TO JUST SUB-AVISORY LEVELS AS SEAS REMAIN 3-5 OR 4-5FT IN HEIGHT IN
A SHORT, CHOPPY PERIOD THAT ECLIPSES THE WEAK NE SWELL. THE HIGH
DRAWS NEARER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO BOTH
DECREASE. IT'S CENTER MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY WILL VEER THE WIND
FROM NORTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...ILM
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