261
FXUS62 KILM 141810
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND. A PASSING DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN
THE COOLEST AIR SINCE SPRING. THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE
ANOTHER WARMUP UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE OLD COASTAL LOW A FEW HUNDRED
MILES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH IS TO SAY, NOT THAT
"COASTAL" ANYMORE. LOCAL EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT, AS SUBSIDENCE HAS
TRAPPED MOISTURE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, ALLOWING FOR A
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FT RANGE TO PUSH
IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST NC AND MOST OF NORTHEAST SC. DRY AIR
ALOFT HAS CUT OFF THE MOISTURE, MEANING THAT RAIN DIDN'T HAVE A
CHANCE TODAY. THIS KICKS OFF A DRY SPELL THAT WE'LL EXPERIENCE FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FURTHER ENE INTO
THE ATLANTIC. DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE
LAYER, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THURSDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S. IN FACT, 80 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF THE PEE DEE REGION. CAPE FEAR REGION SHOULD STICK TO THE MID 70S,
AND THERE'S ACTUALLY A WORLD WHERE WE DON'T EVEN GET THERE. SOME
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS THE STUBBORN MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE, WHICH MAY
PUSH INLAND AT TIMES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST NC COAST, WHICH MAY KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED. REGARDLESS, CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS THICK AS WHAT WE'VE SEEN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD FRIDAY WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. A LITTLE WARMER
THURSDAY MORNING VIA SOME WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND (FURTHER INDICATION OF A CHANGE OF SEASONS AS BLOCKING
PATTERNS BREAK DOWN MORE READILY) WITH ESSENTIALLY AIR MASS
MODIFICATION LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. THERE IS ALSO A HINT OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TURNING THE
WINDS TO MORE SOUTHWEST. LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED/CONTINUED AS
WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MIXED BAG OF VFR AND MVFR TO OPEN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOISTURE
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MVFR CLOUD
CEILINGS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS ESSENTIALLY ALL OF SOUTHEAST NC,
INCLUDING KILM. KLBT IS CURRENTLY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
VFR AND MVFR, BUT SHOULD BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. SIMILAR TRENDS ARE IN PLACE FOR KCRE AND KMYR. KFLO IS
STILL HOLDING STEADY AT VFR, AND I ULTIMATELY THINK IT'LL STAY
THERE.
THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH FURTHER ENE INTO THE ATLANTIC,
TAKING THE MVFR CEILINGS WITH IT. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
EVERYBODY SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY 00-01Z THIS EVENING, BUT I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE MOISTURE HOLDS ON LONGER, SINCE
GUIDANCE HAS ALREADY STRUGGLED WITH THIS IDEA. GUSTS CALM AFTER 00Z,
BUT WE MAINTAIN NNE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NNW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NNE
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS COME DOWN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS HOLD STEADY AT 2-4 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD MARINE FORECAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OFFSHORE WILL SEE A RANGE OF 3-5
FEET DRIFTING DOWNWARD IN TIME TO 2-4 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/IGB
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