747
FXUS62 KILM 142322
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND. A PASSING DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN
THE COOLEST AIR SINCE SPRING. THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE
ANOTHER WARMUP UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED TO FORECAST. AFD ISSUED TO UPDATE
WATCH, WARNING, ADVISORY SECTION AND TO UPDATE AVIATION SECTION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE OLD COASTAL LOW A FEW HUNDRED
MILES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH IS TO SAY, NOT THAT
"COASTAL" ANYMORE. LOCAL EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT, AS SUBSIDENCE HAS
TRAPPED MOISTURE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, ALLOWING FOR A
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 2500-4500 FT RANGE TO PUSH
IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST NC AND MOST OF NORTHEAST SC. DRY AIR
ALOFT HAS CUT OFF THE MOISTURE, MEANING THAT RAIN DIDN'T HAVE A
CHANCE TODAY. THIS KICKS OFF A DRY SPELL THAT WE'LL EXPERIENCE FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FURTHER ENE INTO
THE ATLANTIC. DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE
LAYER, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THURSDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S. IN FACT, 80 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF THE PEE DEE REGION. CAPE FEAR REGION SHOULD STICK TO THE MID 70S,
AND THERE'S ACTUALLY A WORLD WHERE WE DON'T EVEN GET THERE. SOME
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS THE STUBBORN MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE, WHICH MAY
PUSH INLAND AT TIMES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST NC COAST, WHICH MAY KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED. REGARDLESS, CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS THICK AS WHAT WE'VE SEEN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD FRIDAY WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. A LITTLE WARMER
THURSDAY MORNING VIA SOME WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND (FURTHER INDICATION OF A CHANGE OF SEASONS AS BLOCKING
PATTERNS BREAK DOWN MORE READILY) WITH ESSENTIALLY AIR MASS
MODIFICATION LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. THERE IS ALSO A HINT OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TURNING
THE WINDS TO MORE SOUTHWEST. LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED/CONTINUED
AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GENERALLY VFR WITH OVC CEILINGS 3.5K-4.5K FT ACROSS THE AREA.
NOT EXPECTING MVFR TO DEVELOP ACROSS ANY OF THE SC TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH OVC/BKN CEILINGS AT CRE/MYR COULD FLIRT WITH
3K FT. DIFFERENT STORY FOR NC TERMINALS. FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CONTINUATION OF BKN/OVC CEILINGS
AT BOTH ILM AND LBT OVERNIGHT. SURGE OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 04Z AT ILM AND CLOSER TO 08Z FOR LBT. IF
MVFR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THIS IS WHEN IT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN. A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN, BREAKING
UP CLOUD COVER WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM SCT TO SKC. MAY SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO 20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT SURFACE, BUT GUSTS WILL BE INFREQUENT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NNW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NNE
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS COME DOWN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS HOLD STEADY AT 2-4 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD MARINE
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF
MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OFFSHORE WILL SEE A
RANGE OF 3-5 FEET DRIFTING DOWNWARD IN TIME TO 2-4 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...III
MARINE...SHK/IGB
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