659
FXUS62 KILM 150602
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND. A PASSING DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN
THE COOLEST AIR SINCE SPRING. THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE
ANOTHER WARMUP UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TO START THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.
OTHER THAN SOME LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING, SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS DRY AIR DEEPENS. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15
MPH TODAY WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND JUST EAST OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MID 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE
*TEMPS: BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE:
*HIGH REGARDING DRY WEATHER; MODERATE TO HIGH REGARDING TEMPS
DETAILS: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING, SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT. WE CURRENTLY HAVE THU NIGHT AS THE COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S INLAND, WITH JUST A TAD WARMER
TEMPS FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPS COULD GET LOWER BOTH NIGHTS
DEPENDING ON WIND SPEEDS/CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND SPOTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TEMPS GET
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE, EXCEPT LOW LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT
*TEMPS: NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL, WARMEST ON SUN
CONFIDENCE:
*MOSTLY HIGH, EXCEPT LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING RAIN AMOUNTS
SUN/SUN NIGHT
DETAILS: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL START
CHANGING AIR MASSES SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
BRINGING WARMER/MOISTER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ON
SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SUN
WEST OF I-95 AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUN NIGHT BEFORE
COOLER/DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MON. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OR THUNDER CHANCES AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER HERE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MVFR CIGS JUST OFFSHORE AND OVER
EASTERN NC/OBX. THIS COULD SNEAK INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BUT GIVEN THAT WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN NORTHERLY,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR SHOULD DOMINATE.
VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH LAMP PROBS DO SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS THIS MORNING. VFR
SHOULD RETURN BY NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR TRICKLES INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY.
WIND WILL GUST UP TO 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, PROVIDING A BRIEF
SURGE IN WIND GUSTS AND SEAS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-
ADVISORY, BUT SEAS COULD APPROACH 6 FEET FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
(PRIMARILY IN THE NC NEARSHORE WATERS). THE SURGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES INTO THU DUE TO
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE NC
WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/21
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