811
FXUS62 KILM 151732
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
SINCE SPRING. THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM-UP
UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TO START THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NC IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION AROUND 3-5PM THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD GIVE THE AREA A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE SUNSET. ONCE THESE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT, THE SKIES WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AS COOL AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO
THE EAST. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH
PWATS AROUND 0.75-1" IN THE MORNING LOWERING TO 0.4" BY LATE
AFTERNOON (BELOW 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (LOOKING AT
MHX AND CHS SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY). AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 40S WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70-73F THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT THE MID
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FRIDAY WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S(WARMER
SATURDAY) WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS LOWER 40S AT LEAST
FRIDAY MORNING. A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY MORNING VIA AIR MASS
MODIFICATION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ZONAL
LEADING TO A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LACKS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LOW CHANCE POPS ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN NC, CURRENTLY IMPACTING
KILM, KSUT AND KACZ, IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE CAPE
FEAR REGION AROUND 20-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH N WINDS 5-10 KTS AND GUSTS TO 15 KTS
THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND NE SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS 10-15 KTS INTO
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND A DRY
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT FOR
THURSDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY BUILDING ENE SWELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS
EARLY ON DROPPING A BIT BEFORE A BRIEF SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OFFSHORE WILL MAINLY SEE
A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET INCREASING A BIT SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUR COASTLINES,
PARTICULARLY SE NC COAST, AND WELL AS THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
(LCFR) WHICH INCLUDES DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. AS WE APPROACH A NEW MOON
(NEXT TUESDAY), CURRENT FORECAST HAS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
FORECASTED DURING AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES FOR SE NC AT LEAST INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH NE SC WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING. THE
LCFR IS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS DURING EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...SHK/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO
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