399
FXUS62 KILM 160557
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
157 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL USHER
IN THE COOLEST AIR SINCE SPRING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GRADUAL WARM-UP AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER, DRIER WEATHER BACK FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE
*TEMPS: BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE:
*HIGH
DETAILS: LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A CUTOFF MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES SE OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC. SOME LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S, EXCEPT A BIT MILDER ALONG THE COAST AND A
BIT COLDER INLAND IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS DUE TO
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WE'LL EXPERIENCE SLIGHT WARMING FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE, ALLOWING A SLOW RECOVERY OF
WARMER, MOIST AIR. NOTHING IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL IMPACT US
DURING THE PERIOD SO WE'LL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY, WITH LOW SIMILARLY GOING FROM THE 40S TO THE
50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE. A SURGE OF MODEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH
IN OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING LOW POPS WITH
NO THUNDER EXPECTED. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DECENTLY AMPLIFIED
WITH A +30KT JET EMBEDDED IN IT AT 925MB. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT WHERE THIS JET WILL END UP, BUT IF IT SHIFTS A BIT CLOSER TO
US THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD END UP WINDIER
THAN IT CURRENTLY IS, GUSTS NEAR 30MPH POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AFTERWARDS WITH DRY, COOLER WEATHER
RETURNING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU 06Z/17 AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CONCERN IS FOR A VERY LOW
RISK OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM SHALLOW FOG THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z DUE
TO LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN BEFORE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE A BIT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. VERY LOW RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS SUN
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NW PUSHING A COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD ALSO REACH
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS (6 FT) NEAR THE GULF STREAM BUT NOT
THINKING PROBABILITY/COVERAGE IS SUFFICIENT FOR RAISING A HEADLINE
AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BETTER CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH
A FULL MOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SE NC COAST AS WELL AS THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER WHICH INCLUDES DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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