242
FXUS62 KILM 161814
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
214 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL USHER
IN THE COOLEST AIR SINCE SPRING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GRADUAL WARM-UP AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER, DRIER WEATHER BACK FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WAY UP IN
MICHIGAN, WITH THE FINGERS OF IT EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAVE PAVED THE WAY FOR A
CLOUDLESS DAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURES
TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON, PERFECT FOR THE
PUMPKIN PATCH.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DON'T
APPEAR TO CALM DOWN COMPLETELY, BUT THEY DO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY,
OPENING UP SOME NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 40S TONIGHT FOR MOST. THE PEAT SOILS ACROSS PARTS OF
PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO SHOW OFF THEIR
PROPENSITY TO COOL DOWN PRETTY QUICK. THERE IS A REMOTE AUTOMATED
WEATHER STATION (RAWS) IN BACK ISLAND, NC THAT GOT DOWN TO 44
DEGREES LAST NIGHT, AND I'M EXPECTING IT TO GET EVEN CHILLIER
TONIGHT. EVEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VERY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, I
WENT FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S AROUND THE BACK ISLAND AREA. KEEP AN
EYE ON THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS SITE HERE: RAWS.DRI.EDU/CGI-
BIN/RAWMAIN.PL?LANBAC.
FRIDAY LOOKS GORGEOUS, WITH A NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE UNDER TRANSITION DURING
THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
POPS/MOISTURE HAVE DECREASED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND SOME AREAS
MAY SEE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. A DECENT WARMUP IS IN THE OFFING WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S APPROACHING
80 IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUTSIDE OF A FAST MOVING/WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND
SEASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY ON. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW ARE EXPECTED
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT 15-18 KTS OUT OF
THE NNE HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD CALM BY
SUNSET. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING TO 5-7 KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO FOG OR LOW
STRATUS CONCERNS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. VERY LOW RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS A PASSING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO WITH IT.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...
PERSISTENT NNE WINDS AT 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND SUSTAINED WINDS DECREASE
TO 8-10 KTS, BACKING SLIGHTLY TO THE NNW. SEAS AT 2-4 FT COME DOWN A
TAD TO 2-3 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY DECENT AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WITH WIND SPEEDS
RISING TO A RANGE OF 20-25 KNOTS SEAS ECLIPSING THE SIX FOOT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT LEAST
FOR A FEW HOURS. QUICK TRANSITIONS HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK AS AN OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY TURNS TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH
A FULL MOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SE NC COAST AS WELL AS THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER WHICH INCLUDES DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
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