661
FXUS62 KILM 170227
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1027 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL USHER
IN THE COOLEST AIR SINCE SPRING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GRADUAL WARM-UP AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER, DRIER WEATHER BACK FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY MILDER. WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK, N-NE 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT, SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS ACTIVE
JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT CALM CONDITIONS AND ANY WIDESPREAD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH, SOME LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY
OBSERVE CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AFTER
SUNSET, BEFORE RESUMING AT OR BELOW 4 KT. LOWS COULD DROP INTO
THE 30S IN THOSE PRONE COLDER SHELTERED SPOTS. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF THE FCST REMAINS IN TACT.
THE SFC PG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR N-NE
10-15 KT NEARSHORE, 15-20 KT 10-20 NM OUT. SEAS TO RUN 2 TO 5
FT, WITH THE 2 FOOTERS NEARSHORE OFF BRUNSWICK COUNTY. THE 10
SECOND PERIOD E-ESE SWELL TO DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM, POWER-WISE,
VIA SPECTRAL DENSITY PLOT. WITH 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES
ON TOP.
WILL ISSUE THE NEXT COASTAL FLOOD ADV FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LCFR AT THE NEXT HIGH TIDE USING WLON7 FCST
TIDE LEVELS AS THE BASIS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WAY UP IN
MICHIGAN, WITH THE FINGERS OF IT EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAVE PAVED
THE WAY FOR A CLOUDLESS DAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON, PERFECT FOR THE PUMPKIN PATCH.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
DON'T APPEAR TO CALM DOWN COMPLETELY, BUT THEY DO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY, OPENING UP SOME NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S TONIGHT FOR MOST. THE PEAT
SOILS ACROSS PARTS OF PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO SHOW OFF THEIR PROPENSITY TO COOL DOWN PRETTY QUICK.
THERE IS A REMOTE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION (RAWS) IN BACK
ISLAND, NC THAT GOT DOWN TO 44 DEGREES LAST NIGHT, AND I'M
EXPECTING IT TO GET EVEN CHILLIER TONIGHT. EVEN WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS VERY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, I WENT FOR LOWS IN THE MID
30S AROUND THE BACK ISLAND AREA. KEEP AN EYE ON THE HOURLY
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS SITE HERE: RAWS.DRI.EDU/CGI-
BIN/RAWMAIN.PL?LANBAC.
FRIDAY LOOKS GORGEOUS, WITH A NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE UNDER TRANSITION DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. POPS/MOISTURE HAVE DECREASED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. A DECENT WARMUP IS
IN THE OFFING WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S APPROACHING 80 IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUTSIDE OF A FAST MOVING/WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND
SEASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY ON. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THE 24 HR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. SKC
CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CIRRUS POSSIBLE
DURING DAYLIGHT FRI. NO FOG OR LOW STRATUS CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY N-NNE 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT, COULD BRIEFLY
OBSERVE CALM CONDITIONS AT ILM AND LBT UP TO A FEW HRS AFTER
SUNSET. OTHERWISE, CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO DROP SOUTH, REACHING
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING FRI. LOOKING AT WINDS BECOMING NW-N
AROUND 8 KT DURING FRI AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS DUE TO A SURFACE CFP.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...
PERSISTENT NNE WINDS AT 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND SUSTAINED WINDS DECREASE TO
8-10 KTS, BACKING SLIGHTLY TO THE NNW. SEAS AT 2-4 FT COME DOWN
A TAD TO 2-3 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY DECENT AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WITH WIND SPEEDS
RISING TO A RANGE OF 20-25 KNOTS SEAS ECLIPSING THE SIX FOOT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT LEAST
FOR A FEW HOURS. QUICK TRANSITIONS HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK AS AN OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY TURNS TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDES, MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NC THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, FROM
WILMINGTON SOUTH, WILL POTENTIALLY OBSERVE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MINOR FLOODING WILL BE AIDED BY THE
HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING NEW
MOON, OCCURRING ON OCT 21ST AT 825AM EDT. RUNOFF FROM THE
WEEKENDS RAINFALL FROM UPSTREAM WILL ALSO AID THE MINOR
FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH
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