367
FXUS62 KILM 171359
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
959 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARM UP
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
THIS WAS THE CHILLIEST MORNING IN SIX MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE BACK ISLAND RAWS IN THE HOLLY SHELTER GAMELAND IN
PENDER COUNTY, NC HIT 31 DEGREES, THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURE
RECORDED THIS FALL ACROSS OUR AREA. OTHER READINGS INCLUDE:
WILMINGTON 43, COOLEST SINCE APR 16
LUMBERTON 40, COOLEST SINCE APR 17
N MYRTLE BEACH 46, COOLEST SINCE APR 16
FLORENCE 44, COOLEST SINCE APR 17
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TODAY'S FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE NBM BLEND REMAINS ON THE LOWER EDGE OF ALL MOS
GUIDANCE BULLETINS FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, 5 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS FOR THE DATE. DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA, BUT DIMINISHING WIND
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MIDWEST, PARTICULARLY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO COMBAT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
DESPITE CALM WINDS THOUGH THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO CLOUD
THICKNESS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT'S
POSSIBLE LOWS MAY DROP 1-2 DEGREES WITH COLDER SPOTS DROPPING ~5
DEGREES IF THE CLOUDS AREN'T IMPRESSIVE WITH FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE, EXCEPT LOW LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT (MAINLY IN NC)
*TEMPS: NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL, WARMEST ON SUN
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO SUN WITH
TROUGHING MOVING IN FOR LATER SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TOWARD THE NC
SANDHILLS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY
WEST OF I-95 AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF SE NC & NE SC SUNDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN NC CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE/MID-LEVEL ENERGY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MEAGER BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN RETURN FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY A BIT BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE, EXCEPT VERY LOW TUE NIGHT
*TEMPS: MAINLY BELOW NORMAL, EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL TUE
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: COOLER/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK
WITH A WARM-UP INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TUE NIGHT IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE. COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. NNE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 5-7 KTS BECOMING
LIGHTER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SW BEFORE GOING
CALM. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE MIDWEST. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH N-NE WINDS ~15 KTS BECOMING AOB 10 KTS AND THEN LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASING FROM 2-5 FT DURING THE DAY TO 1-3 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A PASSING COLD FRONT SUN
NIGHT BRINGING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDES FOR SC/NC BEACHES AND LIKELY FOR THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING NEW MOON, OCCURRING ON OCT 21ST AT
825AM EDT. RUNOFF FROM LAST WEEKEND'S RAINFALL UPSTREAM WILL ALSO
AID THE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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