453
FXUS62 KILM 172343
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THRU SAT, WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUN,
RESULTING IN A WARM UP THIS WEEKEND. A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL COME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MON THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT WITH A COOL DOWN
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
UPDATE
LATEST SAT IMAGERY INDICATES APPROACHING THIN CIRRUS, THAT
SHOULD BECOME THICKER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS THE 5H
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. COULD OCCASIONALLY OBSERVE POCKETS OF
OPAQUE CIRRUS WHICH MAY PARTIALLY BLOCK THE VIEWING OF THE
ORIONID METEOR SHOWERS, WHICH PEAKS OCT 20-21. FYI, THE
ORIONID METEOR SHOWER IS ACTUALLY THE DEBRIS LEFT BY HAILEY'S
COMET. AND SOME GOOD NEWS FOR FAVORABLE PEAK VIEWING, THE NEW
MOON WILL OCCUR ON THE 21ST AT 825AM EDT.
TONIGHTS FCST LOWS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS ALREADY APPLIED TO THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND THE LOWS TONIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GO CALM BY SUNSET AND THE ONLY ITEM
INTERRUPTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AN AREA OF
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE RIDGE ALOFT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW 50S ON THE BEACHES. POCOSINS AND AREAS OF PEAT
SOIL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, SPECIFICALLY HOLLY
SHELTER GAMELAND, MAY DIP INTO THE 30S AGAIN.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S, BUT REMAINING COOLEST
ALONG THE BEACHES WHERE A SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE NOON.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A WARM UP WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A GOOD 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. THIS IS AIDED BY A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS IN A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO SUN
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS UP CLOSER TO 80 ON SUNDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY BREEZE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
INCREASING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES AND LOOKING AT PCP WATER
VALUES, THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL COME LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHC OF ANY SHWRS WILL
COME LATE SUN AFTN INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT, BUT
WILL BE MINIMAL CHANCE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
IN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A DRY WEEK AHEAD WITH TEMPS FLUCTUATING A BIT. BY MONDAY
MORNING, THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WHILE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A SOMEWHAT
FLAT FLOW ALOFT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON INTO TUE. OVERALL, COOL WEATHER MON INTO
MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS UP NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BELOW 50 IN MOST PLACES INLAND OF THE COAST. THEN IT
WILL WARM TUES BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUES NIGHT
KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN FOR MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
BY FRI, IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE MAY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE FRI OR INTO THE WEEKEND THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME
CLOUDS, BUT OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST, WILL REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SAT
AFTN. CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT THRU SAT WITH SCT OCCASIONAL BKN. MAJORITY OF THE
CIRRUS WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA SAT AFTN. WINDS CALM TONIGHT
DUE TO A DECENT SFC BASED INVERSION AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE A WEAK LAND BREEZE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HRS AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE,
WINDS TO BECOME SW AROUND 8 KT BY MIDDAY, EXCEPT BECOMING S-SSW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS 6-9 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM A LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY
SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, VFR
SHOULD DOMINATE.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY WAVE COMPONENT
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE AN 11 SECOND SWELL FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AVERAGING 2-3 FEET ACROSS OPEN WATERS BUT ONLY 1-2
FEET WEST OF FRYING PAN SHOALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAPE
FEAR COAST SAT NIGHT WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE THROUGH SUN WITH BUILDING SEAS
THROUGH SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS SUN NIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY. WIND SAND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH MON BUT
WILL BE DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY MON NIGHT REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH
TUES WITH SEAS DOWN FROM 3 TO 5 FT MON AFTN TO 2 TO 4 FT MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUES. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TUES NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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