201
FXUS62 KILM 180559
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
159 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, DRIER
THAN THE FIRST. COLDEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS, ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, DRIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY.
THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST, AS IS THE RIDGING ALOFT, AND THE WEAK
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS TODAY LIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY MIDDAY
ENCOURAGING SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS END UP
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK
HELPS CIRRUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUD WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KICK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BY
SUNDAY, SW FLOW BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 25-30 MPH STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LINGERING A BIT LONGER THAN USUALLY AFTER SUNSET
AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL LEAD TO LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONT OFFSHORE AND MORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL
DROP BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES SUN TO MON FROM NEAR 80 TO NEAR 70.
MEANWHILE LOWS WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 40S. RADIATIONAL
COOLING COULD BE IDEAL MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH CALM
WINDS, OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARM-
UP INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLDEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CURRENT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S. WITH NO CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS, THE FORECAST MAY BE
TOO WARM. MILDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT WILL LEAD TO
A BIT MORE WARMING FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LITTLE
VARIATION DAY TO DAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLIP OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. WEAK
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 KT. THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT THE DIRECTION CHANGE IS BARELY SIGNIFICANT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE
VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO
HIT 10 KT TODAY. SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS CLIMB INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE, BUT GENERALLY ON THE LOWER
END OF THE RANGE. SEAS 2-3 FT TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FT WELL
AWAY FROM SHORE DEVELOPING EARLY SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN EASTERLY SWELL WITH MINIMAL WIND WAVE GIVEN THE
DECREASED SPEEDS AND CHANGING DIRECTION.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS ONCE MORE FOR MIDWEEK BUT NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/LEW
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