602
FXUS62 KILM 190041
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
841 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AND DOMINATE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
MARINE...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS FROM NOON
SUNDAY THRU 9AM MON. SFC PG TIGHTENS QUICKLY SUN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE 5H TROF GOES NEG TILT
LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKER TO THE
EAST, AND SHOULD PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS DURING THE 04Z TO 07Z TIME FRAME. SSW-SW WINDS WILL
PEAK IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO FROPA FOLLOWED BY W TO NW WINDS
PEAKING DURING THE HOURS AFTER FROPA TO SUNRISE. WITH CAA
COMBINING WITH THE TIGHTENED SFC PG. OVERALL SHOULD OBSERVE
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES. WILL HAVE WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK,
IE. 925MB, RUNNING 35-40 KT, WHICH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC
AS 30 TO POSSIBLY A 35 KT GUST. ENE 12+ SECOND PERIOD SWELL AND
WIND DRIVEN WAVES SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A PEAK OF 3 TO 6 FT
, WITH 7 FOOTERS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.
REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TARGET, JUST SOME TWEAKING OF
PARAMETERS, IE. HRLY DEWPOINTS, USING THE LATEST OBS AND HIGH
RES DATA AND MASSAGING THEM TO THE FCST AT HAND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THIS MORNING'S LOWS, WITH FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE MID 50S FOR
SUNDAY MORNING. DECENT WAA WILL BRING WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30+ MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES, BUT NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. COLD
FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. SINCE THE
BULK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE
LIFTING TROUGH, COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN OUR AREA AND
QPF IS ONLY AROUND 0.1". THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
NEAR THE COAST LATE SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT WHEN MEAGER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWS AROUND 50F BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT AND WILL
MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MON MORNING TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUES. NW WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON MONDAY AND WILL BACK AND
LIGHTEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN THE 70S ON MON AND TUES. INLAND AREAS
SHOULD HAVE HIGHER TEMPS ON TUES WITH A WARMER AND MOISTER
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE TUES. COASTAL
AREAS MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS ON MON WITH THE OFFSHORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO WINDS VS. ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OFF THE
WATER ON TUES. OVERALL, A DRY PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
COOL SIDE MON NIGHT, WITH MOST PLACES INLAND OF THE COAST IN THE
40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALTHOUGH THE DAYS WILL WARM IN LATE OCTOBER SUNSHINE, TEMPS
WILL FLUCTUATE A BIT. A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUES NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS AND WARMER TEMPS
AHEAD OF IT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THURS. OVERALL, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FLATTER MOST OF
THE WEEK AND THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
SOUTH WED THROUGH THURS, SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY FRI. THE WEEKEND
WEATHER MAY BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS A SHORTWAVE AND LOW
POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH. TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THE 00Z 24 HR FCST. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING SUN AFTN. MUCH OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE UPSTREAM SCOURS OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE FA LATER IN THE DAY AS ALTOCU OR LOW CIRRUS, 10K TO 20K
FEET. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE LIGHT SSW-SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KT THRU THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING, THAT INCREASE AFTER
14Z TO 10-15 KT, WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20+ KT DURING SUN
AFTN THRU 00Z MON.THIS THE RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING PG AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS IMMEDIATELY ALOFT BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 30-40 KT WHICH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC AS A
30+ KT WIND GUST SUN EVENING GIVEN MIXING HEIGHTS 4K+ FEET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CFP, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE
MAY ALSO BE A FEW HOURS OF LLWS SUN EVENING AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WITH SSW-SW WINDS INCREASING TO 35+ KTS AT 2 KFT.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON THRU THU.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
IN STRENGTH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW
OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KTS SUNDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT. SEAS 2-3 FT TONIGHT BUILD TO 4-5 FT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OFF OF SOUTHEAST NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF SCA MAY BE ISSUED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS, MAINLY FOR SE NC
WATERS, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED
THUNDER IS FORECASTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AS COLD FRONT EXITS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK AND LIGHTEN THROUGH MON WITH SEAS
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS BY MON EVE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS TUES NIGHT AND EXPECT A BUMP UP OF THE WINDS AND
SEAS AT THAT TIME COMING DOWN BY LATE WED INTO THUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE NW BEHIND THE FRONT
MON, THEN BACK SLOWLY AND LIGHTEN UP THROUGH LATE MON INTO TUES.
THE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO TUES EVE WILL COME AROUND
ONCE AGAIN TO THE N AS A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY WED. SEAS MAY REACH BACK UP TO 3 TO 4 FT TUES NIGHT INTO
WED ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RGZ/VAO
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