371
FXUS62 KILM 191001
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
601 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AS THE MOISTURE STARVED FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AND DOMINATE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE YET HOLDING ON ALONG THE COAST WILL
MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING 25-
30 MPH. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INLAND AND THEN THE COAST IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING IN STRENGTH IN SOME
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT
AS THE FRONT CLEARS OUR AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY (~6HRS), AND NO THUNDER
IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND FLAT
FLOW ALOFT. VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUE WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS UNDER 0.50", RUNNING AS LOW AS
.030" ON MON. TUE NIGHT INTO WED A STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS
MOISTURE STARVED, PRECIPITABLE WATER BRIEFLY TOUCHES 1" TUE NIGHT
BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING, NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF
DYNAMICS (WHICH WILL BE WELL NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE LOW) THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT IS ABOUT ZERO. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MON RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL MON NIGHT. BIGGER
CONCERN MON WILL BE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. CURRENT FORECAST OF RH AOB
30% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY DRY AIR, SINGLE DIGIT RH, JUST ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER DURING PEAK HEATING. THE GUIDANCE ALWAYS STRUGGLES TO RESOLVE
THE DRY AIR IN THESE TYPES OF AIR MASSES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S WHILE COLD
ADVECTION TUE NIGHT IS DELAYED AND SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE WED MORNING WITH MODIFIED HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH BROAD 5H TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
EAST COAST, THE HIGH MOVING IN IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD. SO WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY THU WHEN THE COOLER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE, THEY WON'T DROP MUCH BELOW NORMAL. VERY DRY AIR
AIR MASS WED/THU, PRECIPITABLE WATER AOB 0.50", WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
WITH MIXING ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25% IN SOME AREAS BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRI AND SAT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING, SETTING UP WEAK WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL TO END THE WEEK WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE ABUNDANCE OF
DEEP DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FREE OF RAIN.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR. SOME GROUND FOG IS IMPACTING THE KILM ASOS BUT LOOKING
OUTSIDE IMPACTS TO THE RUNWAY LOOK UNLIKELY SO WILL NOT BE
ADDING THIS TO THE TAF, THOUGH RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS SSW WINDS START GUSTING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
GUSTS WILL BE ~20-25 KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME WITH A NON-ZERO
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MVFR CIGS TO IMPACT A TERMINAL, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW. MOST OF THE TAF IS DEDICATED TO THE SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW WINDS, WHICH SHOULD BE FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING TO ~5 KTS. CONFIDENCE
ON LLWS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOT INCREASED AS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA,
MOVING OVER THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW.
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME 6 FT SEAS ~20 NM OUT WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WATERS WILL BE AFFECTED BY 2 COLD FRONT THIS WEEK. THE FIRST
MOVES OFFSHORE PRIOR TO MON MORNING WITH THE ENHANCED POST FRONT
WINDS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION ONGOING. WINDS DROP OFF DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW 10KT OR LESS BY MON AFTERNOON.
NO SIGN OF ANY NORTHERLY SURGE MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH TO THE
SOUTH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW INCREASES TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH PASSES DRY IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE PRE-
FRONTAL REGIME WITH SOLID 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WED INTO THU, BUT OFFSHORE FLOW
STRUGGLES TO HIT 15KT. ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
EARLY THU WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BE ON SOMEWHAT OF A ROLLER COASTER THIS WEEK. STARTING OFF
3-5 FT MON MORNING THEN FALLING TO 1-2 FT MON NIGHT AND FIRST
PART OF TUE. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WILL BRING SEAS BACK UP TO 3-4 FT TUE NIGHT, BUT THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW WED INTO THU DROPS SEAS BACK TO 1-2
FT. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF AN EASTERLY SWELL AND WIND WAVE
VARYING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND EVEN A BIT OF NORTHERLY AT
TIMES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...III/LEW
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