615
FXUS62 KILM 200049
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
849 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
AND DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
SOME TWEAKING OF THE VARIOUS PARAMETERS OVER LAND AND WATER,
MAINLY THE TIMING OF THE LOW CHANCE POPS, ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
AND WINDS BOTH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS. THIS BASED ON LATEST 88D
RETURNS AND LAND AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS LATEST HIGH
RES GUIDANCE. STILL A DYNAMICAL CFP JUST WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE TIL IT REACHES AND MOVES OFF THE LOCAL COASTS BY
04Z-05Z. STILL KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY PORTIONS OF THE
ILM NC CWA. NEGATED ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES UNTIL THE PCPN
MOVES OFF THE COAST AND TAPS SOME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMER POCKETS OF WATER BEFORE REALLY BLOSSOMING ONCE IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WILL SEE POST FRONTAL NW WIND GUSTINESS
THAT SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 5 KT FOR A FEW HRS AROUND DAYBREAK
MON THAN PICK BACK UP ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTS BY MID TO LATE
DAYTIME MON MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE ONGOING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, LOCATED ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BE LIMITED
AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
ONGOING LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND
WITH THE BEST LIFT PASSING NW AND N OF THE AREA DOESN'T BODE
WELL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF OR AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE BOUNDARY FOR TONIGHT. DURING MONDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSIVELY BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AND EVEN HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN NEAR FULL SUN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MON NIGHT INLAND OF THE
COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 50ISH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
LOOKING AT PCP WATER VALUES, READINGS LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WILL HOLD UNTIL LATE TUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 1.25 INCHES
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE CONFINED TO 10K OR LESS WITH VERY DRY MID
LEVELS STILL IN PLACE. THEREFORE, EXPECT SOME CLOUDS, AND CAN
NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER, ALTHOUGH VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND
CHANCE EXPECTED.
BY DAYBREAK, W TO NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN VERY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY WED, BUT IT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS
CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SLIGHTLY GREATER
MOISTER, CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS TUES NIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID 50S MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BACK INTO DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AFTER A WARMER START TO THE DAY WITH A NICE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN TRACKING SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER TRAVERSING THE CAROLINAS EARLY FRI
REACHING THE DELMARVA COAST SAT. OVERALL, QUIET WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
BY SAT, AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS BACK IN THE FORECAST,
MAINLY LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOWER STRATOCU. MODELS DIFFER A BIT OVER SUNDAY FORECAST. A
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND SHOULD SPAWN A SFC LOW AT SOME POINT, POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL, EXPECT DRY WEATHER UP UNTIL THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A HALF
INCH WILL CREEP UP SAT AND POSSIBLY REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD. IF ANY PCPN ABLE TO GET WRUNG OUT FROM THIS MOISTURE
FIELD (OR LACK OF), EXPECT AT WORST 4SM IN SHOWERS AND A
CEILING OF 3500 FT. NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THUNDER UNTIL THE
PCPN REACHES THE WARM ATL WATERS AND ESPECIALLY THE GULF STREAM
WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVBL. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
INITIALLY THE GUSTY SSW-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTER
THE CFP, BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND OFF THE COAST, LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME SKC AND FOR WINDS TO
VEER TO THE NW WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS. COULD OBSERVE UP TO
30+ KT AS CAA COMBINES WITH THE TIGHTENED SFC PG. MAY SEE A LULL
IN THE WINDS IN THE 09Z THRU 14Z TIMEFRAME, BUT GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD PICK BACK UP FOR THE MID MORNING THRU MID-AFTN TIME LINE
BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING FOR GOOD AFTER 22Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLY FETCH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AND WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY MORNING, NO OTHER BIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST. OVERALL, THE SLY FLOW WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING MONDAY. THE
OFFSHORE FETCH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT NEARSHORE WAVE
GROWTH. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SPREADS
ACROSS THE WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO MON NIGHT AS THEY BACK
WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING INTO TUES. WINDS AS
LOW AS 5 KTS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS TUES AFTN INTO TUES EVENING AS A MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
POST FROPA WED MORNING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
MORE WESTERLY BUT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME AS SEAS REMAIN IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH GREATEST SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT HEAD OF COLD
FRONT TUES NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NC/VA AND
WITH CENTER TO THE NORTH, THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME ONSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RGZ/SRP
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