887
FXUS62 KILM 201039
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A POTENT MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PIVOT AWAY TODAY WITH RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO PLAY
FOR MONDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE AND STEADY NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN GUSTINESS SUBSIDING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ECLIPSE 70F IN MOST AREAS
WITH FULL SUNSHINE ALL DAY, WITH DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 30S
TO AROUND 40F IN MOST AREAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
TODAY, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME CALM SOON AFTER SUNRISE, SUPPORTING
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. AWAY FROM THE
COAST, TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
RETURN FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF EXITING SURFACE HIGH IS ENHANCED TUE
AS DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STACKED LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION, MEANING IT ARRIVES MOISTURE
STARVED AND LACKING DYNAMICS. THE OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THE FRONT ALSO
MEANS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS IN SHORT SUPPLY. THE RESULT WILL
BE DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, BUT THE AIR MASS BELOW 8K FT REMAINS
VERY DRY. THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS HEAVILY MODIFIED, LACKING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COLD AIR AND IS QUITE DRY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
NOT EXCESSIVELY LOW, AROUND 0.40" WED, IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE THAT
GIVES GUIDANCE TROUBLE WHEN IT COMES TO LOW DEWPOINTS/RH. WOULDN'T
BE SHOCKED TO SEE MANY AREAS DIP UNDER 30% WITH SOME AREAS FLIRTING
WITH 20%. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 20-25KT AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER AND WITH FULL SUN THESE WINDS COULD MIX TO THE SURFACE
IN THE FORM OF GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE QUITE
SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUE. WHAT LITTLE COLD AIR IS PRESENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WED NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS ABOVE NORMAL TUE NIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES THU AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD THU NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SLIPPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT. THU LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH 5H TROUGHING OVERHEAD, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL
STILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. PATTERN ALOFT FLATTENS FRI AND SAT
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY SUN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
TO START THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE. ALMOST 7 DAYS
OUT PLUS THE TROUGH IS FILLING/WEAKENING AND LOSING MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND A LACK OF GUSTINESS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE SUN HELPS TO MIX DOWN LEFTOVER GUSTY
WINDS STARTING AROUND MID-MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. HOWEVER, AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS, EXPECT GUSTINESS TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NEARLY
OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE DAY, EXPECT WINDS TO GO CALM SOON AFTER
SUNSET AND REMAIN CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH VERY DRY
AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
ASIDE FROM DIRECTLY OVER AND ADJACENT TO WARM WATER SOURCES,
WHERE STEAM FOG SHOULD BE OBSERVED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING WHICH GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
THE HIGH OVERHEAD, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY FROM
THEIR 3- 6 FT LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 1-2 FT BY THIS
EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TUE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT, UNTIL THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS OF WED. POST FRONT GRADIENT IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND LACK
OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP OFFSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT WED AND
THU. WINDS VEER TO NORTHEAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST, BUT GRADIENT IS LITTLE CHANGED. SEAS BUILD TO
3-4 FT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT, BUT
DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRI WILL
KEEP SEAS 1-2 FT WED THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL INITIALLY CONSIST OF A
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE AND AN EASTERLY SWELL. THE EAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI, BUT THE WIND WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...III/ABW
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