160
FXUS62 KILM 201825
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH OUR AREA LAST NIGHT IS
NOW WELL OFFSHORE, AND DRY AIR HAS INFILTRATED IN ITS PLACE.
DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
CLEAR SKY. BENIGN WEATHER ON THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN NEARLY DIRECTLY ABOVE US,
WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO CALM AT SUNSET, AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WITH A CLOUDLESS SKY IN PLACE, THIS SETS UP FOR AN
EXCELLENT ROUND OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE PEAT SOILS. ISOLATED
SPOTS IN BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES LIKE TO GET PARTICULARLY
CHILLY ON NIGHTS LIKE THESE.
WE HAD A SIMILAR SETUP LAST WEEK (LAST THURSDAY NIGHT OCTOBER 16TH
INTO FRIDAY MORNING OCTOBER 17TH). I WAS THE DAYTIME NEAR TERM
FORECASTER HEADING INTO THAT NIGHT, AND I PUT IN THAT BACK ISLAND,
NC WOULD GET DOWN INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S. I THOUGHT I WENT LOW
ENOUGH, BUT APPARENTLY I DIDN'T, AS THE OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT
MORNING SHOWED A LOW OF 31 DEGREES. THIS IS SO OFTEN A "FORECAST
GOTCHA" FOR ME PERSONALLY, AND NOW TONIGHT'S CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN
MORE FAVORABLE. LOWS SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S FOR
MOST, WITH LOWER 50S LIKELY AT THE COAST. BUT THE INFAMOUS COLD
SPOTS SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 20S. DEWPOINTS IN THESE
AREAS WILL LIKELY LINGER RIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE, SO THERE
ARE SOME *VERY* ISOLATED SPOTS IN PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES THAT
COULD WAKE UP TO A FROST OR FREEZE. BUT, THE COVERAGE IS MUCH TOO
ISOLATED TO THINK ABOUT A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING THAT
WOULD COVER AN ENTIRE COUNTY OR TWO.
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, WE WARM UP NICELY INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S,
WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS AND THAT'S
JUST ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S
WEDNESDAY BUT TAKE A A DECIDEDLY DOWNTURN THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MIDDLE 40S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND FOLLOWING
THE LOW TEMPERATURE TREND WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RELAX AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN NATURE AND EVEN PERHAPS RIDGING BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SPREAD COME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA VERY
LATE. THE RAIN IF IT OCCURS WILL BE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH/RESPONSE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED LATE OCTOBER AND SLOW
PATTERN EVOLUTION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLOWLY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KTS
HAVE OCCURRED AT KILM AND KCRE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, BUT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM BY SUNSET,
BUT THERE ARE NO FOG OR LOW STRATUS CONCERNS TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 5-8 KTS PICK UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS BACK TO THE WSW
TONIGHT, DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 5 KTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGHOUT TUESDAY TOWARDS 10-15 KTS. SEAS AT 2-4 FT
RAPIDLY DECREASE TO 1-2 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING, REMAINING THAT WAY
ALL DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A BRIEF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD THEN SHIFTING TO WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
A DRY FRONT. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE ONLY REMOTE CHANCE BEING SOME INCREASED SEAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. OUTSIDE OF THIS SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET AND WIND SPEEDS HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS OR SO.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page