509
FXUS62 KILM 202350
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS AND OFFSHORE TUE. A DRY CFP WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST WED THRU THU
WITH ITS CENTER MOVING OVERHEAD FRI. AFTER A CHCHCHILLY NIGHT
TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK-WEEK.
UPDATE
JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS, MAINLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WITH THE OVERALL EXCELLENT RAD COOLING
CONDITIONS APPLIED TO TONIGHTS LOWS AND HRLY GRIDS WELL
HANDLED AND IDENTIFIED BY THE DAYSHIFT FORECASTER. DID ADD
SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE LOCATIONS IN PENDER COUNTY WHERE
ISOLATED LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S (IE BACK ISLAND
RAWS). GROUND TEMPS REMAIN MILD AT THIS TIME, THUS ANY PATCHY
FROST WILL BE ELEVATED. TOO ISOLATED TO BE PICKED UP BY THE
ZONE FORMATTERS BUT CAN BE SEEN THRU THE USE OF POINT AND
CLICK.
MARINE WINDS AND SEAS TO FURTHER IMPROVE AS THE SFC PG
FURTHER RELAXES AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH WINDS AOB 10 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
SEAS ALSO TO FURTHER SUBSIDE WITH A 1 TO 2 FT EASTERLY SWELL
AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS DOMINATING AND WIND WAVES NEARLY
NEGLIGIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH OUR AREA LAST
NIGHT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE, AND DRY AIR HAS INFILTRATED IN ITS
PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A CLEAR SKY. BENIGN WEATHER ON THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN NEARLY DIRECTLY ABOVE US,
WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO CALM AT SUNSET, AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH A CLOUDLESS SKY IN PLACE, THIS SETS
UP FOR AN EXCELLENT ROUND OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE PEAT
SOILS. ISOLATED SPOTS IN BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES LIKE TO GET
PARTICULARLY CHILLY ON NIGHTS LIKE THESE.
WE HAD A SIMILAR SETUP LAST WEEK (LAST THURSDAY NIGHT OCTOBER
16TH INTO FRIDAY MORNING OCTOBER 17TH). I WAS THE DAYTIME NEAR
TERM FORECASTER HEADING INTO THAT NIGHT, AND I PUT IN THAT BACK
ISLAND, NC WOULD GET DOWN INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S. I THOUGHT I
WENT LOW ENOUGH, BUT APPARENTLY I DIDN'T, AS THE OBSERVATIONS
THE NEXT MORNING SHOWED A LOW OF 31 DEGREES. THIS IS SO OFTEN A
"FORECAST GOTCHA" FOR ME PERSONALLY, AND NOW TONIGHT'S
CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN MORE FAVORABLE. LOWS SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO
THE LOW-TO-MID 40S FOR MOST, WITH LOWER 50S LIKELY AT THE COAST.
BUT THE INFAMOUS COLD SPOTS SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 20S. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY LINGER RIGHT
WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE, SO THERE ARE SOME *VERY* ISOLATED
SPOTS IN PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES THAT COULD WAKE UP TO A
FROST OR FREEZE. BUT, THE COVERAGE IS MUCH TOO ISOLATED TO THINK
ABOUT A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING THAT WOULD COVER AN
ENTIRE COUNTY OR TWO.
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, WE WARM UP NICELY INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER
70S, WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SEND A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS AND
THAT'S JUST ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S WEDNESDAY BUT TAKE A A DECIDEDLY DOWNTURN THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MIDDLE 40S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND
FOLLOWING THE LOW TEMPERATURE TREND WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RELAX AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
IN NATURE AND EVEN PERHAPS RIDGING BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SPREAD COME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
AREA VERY LATE. THE RAIN IF IT OCCURS WILL BE FROM THE COASTAL
TROUGH/RESPONSE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED LATE
OCTOBER AND SLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLOWLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGHOUT THE 00Z 24 HR TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. NO CEILINGS,
LET ALONE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TUE. RELAXED
SFC PG AND A SFC BASED INVERSION TO QUICKLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN CALM UNTIL DAYLIGHT
TUE MORNING. DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT FOG/STRATUS. ONLY POSSIBLE CLOUDS WILL BE FEW/SCT CIRRUS
LATE TUE AFT/EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. DRY CFP
WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK-WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS BACK TO THE WSW TONIGHT,
DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 5 KTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGHOUT TUESDAY TOWARDS 10-15 KTS. SEAS AT
2-4 FT RAPIDLY DECREASE TO 1-2 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING, REMAINING
THAT WAY ALL DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A BRIEF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
THEN SHIFTING TO WEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY FRONT. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY REMOTE CHANCE BEING SOME INCREASED SEAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. OUTSIDE OF THIS
SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET AND WIND SPEEDS HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS
OR SO.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/IGB
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