297
FXUS62 KILM 210524
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
124 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
MAINLY AFFECTING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS BENEATH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND TRANSITORY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING. EXPECT CHILLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.
CLEAR SKIES AT SUNRISE WILL SUPPORT RAPID WARMING AND A WIDE DIURNAL
RANGE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES, TURNING THE DEEP-LAYER
FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-70S INLAND AND LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST. WITH WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F, A WEAK SEA BREEZE SHOULD
MANAGE TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE INLAND, BACKING THE FLOW TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY BEHIND IT. CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD EVENTUALLY
START TO SEE SOME PASSING MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WITH A BAND OF THICKER CLOUDS AND WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ITSELF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DUE TO THE PRECEDING VERY DRY AIRMASS
AND THE UPPER FORCING PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO THE
50S AND STEADY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WED FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. THE HIGH EXPANDS EAST WED NIGHT INTO
THU THEN SHIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER THU AND THU NIGHT.
COLD AIR WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST AND ONLY WEAK, BROAD 5H TROUGHING OVERHEAD. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
BOTH DAYS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND GOOD MIXING. ON WED VERY DRY AIR AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HUMIDITY UNDER 30%
FOR MANY AREAS WITH PARTS OF INLAND SC FLIRTING WITH 20%. WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 20 KT, SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. DRY AIR
LINGERS THU, BUT A LITTLE LESS OF A CONCERN WITH THE LACK OF WIND.
LOWS END UP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE HIGH ISN'T IN AN IDEAL
LOCATION FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
WIND. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WILL RUN COOLER, BUT NOT AS COLD AS ON
EXTREME RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO CONSOLIDATE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FRI
MORNING AND THEN SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM WEAKLY AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL. HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND, SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS, BUT IT'S ILL-
DEFINED AND LIKELY TO HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM
THE 4 CORNERS REGION EARLY FRI WHICH THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH STARTS FILLING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. RAGGED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ARE ALL THAT'S LEFT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST
LATE SUN INTO MON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL AT THIS POINT,
BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN HIGHS START TRENDING A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS CLOUDS START TO
INCREASE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT UNTIL A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT THESE SHOULD
BE WELL-ABOVE MVFR LEVELS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INITIALLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO 15-20 KTS UNTIL THE FRONT VEERS WINDS TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. 1-2 FT SEAS THIS MORNING WILL
RESPOND TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO
AROUND 2-4 FT OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WIND WAVES. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRI WITH FLOW VEERING FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST LATER FRI AND SAT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LOW
END OF THE 10-15 KT RANGE INTO SAT, BUT LATER IN THE DAY A
COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP. THIS FEATURE STARTS TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, INCREASING WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SEAS RUN 2-3 FT INTO SAT BEFORE 4 FT SEAS START TO APPEAR IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATE DAY INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE WIND
WAVE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WAVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT FIRST BUT EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. AN EASTERLY SWELL BE REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
TODAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...III/ABW
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