229
FXUS62 KILM 211813
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
MAINLY AFFECTING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WHILE A COLD
FRONT IS STARTING TO KNOCK ON APPALACHIA'S DOOR. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING
FROM SOME DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO
KICK UP INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND SOME
SPOTS IN THE PEE DEE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO GO A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL EYES ON THE COLD FRONT THIS PERIOD, AS IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, PASSING OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WELL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE PASSING THROUGH PARTS OF THE
CSRA AND THE SC MIDLANDS RIGHT NOW, BUT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CLOUD COVER REMAINS BACK IN GEORGIA, ALONG A LINE FROM TOCCOA TO
ATHENS TO KENNESAW TO CARROLLTON. THIS ALREADY SUGGESTS A SLOWER
TREND TO THE FRONT'S MOVEMENT THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT, BUT THIS IS
RATHER INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR THE LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER.
THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUD CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO 6000-7000 FT AT BEST, WITH NO LEGITIMATE
RAIN CHANCES INVOLVED. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOW-TO-
MID 50S INLAND, MID-TO-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY BE PRESENT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, BUT
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
FINALLY, AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NC FOREST SERVICE AND NEIGHBORING
NWS OFFICES, WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NC (BLADEN, BRUNSWICK, COLUMBUS, NEW HANOVER, PENDER, AND
ROBESON COUNTIES) WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING. THE COMBINATION
OF DRY FUELS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP
TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT, ACCOMPANIED BY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING
AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER YOU CAN BURN. IF YOU DO, YOU ARE ADVISED TO
USE EXTREME CAUTION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
UNREMARKABLE PERIOD EXPECTED WEATHERWISE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN
TIME. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY
REINFORCING THE AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE. SPEAKING OF WHICH HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
POPS AND CLOUD COVER HAVE INCREASED WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE (NOT NECESSARILY ALL SUITES) BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
HIGHEST VALUES...LOW CHANCE ARE NOW ALIGNED POINTS SOUTH AND EAST
EARLY SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TRENDS. ITS WORTH NOTING
FROM AN IDSS STANDPOINT THERE ARE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS
SHOWING A DECENT TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ALIGNED WITH MOISTURE AND NOT ANY AIR MASS
CHANGE AS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, BUT ONLY RESULTS IN SOME CEILINGS AT
6000-7000 FT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY THIS EVENING, THANKS TO AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF TONIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS
CURRENTLY AT 1-2 FT INCREASE TO 2-4 FT DUE TO WIND WAVES. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DECREASE BACK TOWARDS 10 KTS, BACKING A BIT MORE
WESTERLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SEAS COME BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1-2
FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF PERIODS WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. THIS
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS BUT AN INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD COULD
PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE WHILE NOT TOTALLY RULING
OUT GALE CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
INCREASING LATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/IGB
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