801
FXUS62 KILM 212350
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
MAINLY AFFECTING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WHILE A
COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO KNOCK ON APPALACHIA'S DOOR. PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING FROM SOME DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED
FOR TEMPERATURES TO KICK UP INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SOME SPOTS IN THE PEE DEE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
GO A COUPLE MORE DEGREES THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL EYES ON THE COLD FRONT THIS PERIOD, AS IT WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, PASSING
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS WELL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE PASSING THROUGH
PARTS OF THE CSRA AND THE SC MIDLANDS RIGHT NOW, BUT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS CLOUD COVER REMAINS BACK IN GEORGIA, ALONG A LINE
FROM TOCCOA TO ATHENS TO KENNESAW TO CARROLLTON. THIS ALREADY
SUGGESTS A SLOWER TREND TO THE FRONT'S MOVEMENT THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT, BUT THIS IS RATHER INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR THE LOCAL
SENSIBLE WEATHER.
THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO 6000-7000 FT AT BEST, WITH
NO LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INVOLVED. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY BOTTOM
OUT INTO THE LOW-TO- MID 50S INLAND, MID-TO-UPPER 50S AT THE
COAST.
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY BE PRESENT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY,
BUT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
FINALLY, AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NC FOREST SERVICE AND
NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES, WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NC (BLADEN, BRUNSWICK, COLUMBUS, NEW
HANOVER, PENDER, AND ROBESON COUNTIES) WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT,
ACCOMPANIED BY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 18 MPH. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING
AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER YOU CAN BURN. IF YOU DO, YOU ARE ADVISED
TO USE EXTREME CAUTION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
UNREMARKABLE PERIOD EXPECTED WEATHERWISE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN TIME. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY REINFORCING THE
AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE. SPEAKING OF WHICH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
POPS AND CLOUD COVER HAVE INCREASED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
(NOT NECESSARILY ALL SUITES) BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. THE HIGHEST
VALUES...LOW CHANCE ARE NOW ALIGNED POINTS SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TRENDS. ITS WORTH
NOTING FROM AN IDSS STANDPOINT THERE ARE ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS SHOWING A DECENT TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ALIGNED WITH MOISTURE
AND NOT ANY AIR MASS CHANGE AS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, BUT ONLY RESULTS IN SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
BY EARLY MORNING. SKIES CLEAR LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEST
WIND UP TO ~10 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY THIS EVENING, THANKS TO AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF TONIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS
CURRENTLY AT 1-2 FT INCREASE TO 2-4 FT DUE TO WIND WAVES. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DECREASE BACK TOWARDS 10 KTS, BACKING A BIT MORE
WESTERLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SEAS COME BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1-2
FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF PERIODS WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY.
THIS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS BUT AN INCREASE LATER IN
THE PERIOD COULD PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE WHILE
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT GALE CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
2-4 FEET INCREASING LATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS/IGB
MARINE...SHK/IGB
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