031
FXUS62 KILM 220532
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WITH MOST OF THE UPPER FORCING
PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION, A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, VEERING WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY AND
TAKING ANY CLOUD COVER WITH IT. A DOSE OF COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TODAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEW POINTS NOTICEABLY LOWERING
FROM THE 50S INTO THE LOWER 40S TO PERHAPS UPPER 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WINDS VEER FURTHER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS ANOTHER
DOSE OF DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE AREA, PERMITTING LOWS IN THE 40S BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BE THE THEME
FOR THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE HIGH ON THU IS REINFORCED THU NIGHT INTO
FRI BY SECOND HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST. PARTIAL THICKNESS DOES SHOW A
SUBTLE SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN FOR FRI. NOT A BIG DROP
FROM HIGHS ON THU, BUT A COUPLE THREE DEGREES COOLER ON FRI COMPARED
TO THU SEEMS REASONABLE. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER STRUGGLING TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 0.50" UNTIL FRI NIGHT. NO RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER UNTIL THE
MOISTURE, MOSTLY ALOFT, STARTS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EXITING THE 4 CORNERS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ON THU WILL DIP TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT HUMIDITY UNDER 30% WITH AREAS WEST OF I-95 FLIRTING
WITH 20%. AS FOR WIND, IF HIGHS CAN PUSH INTO UPPER 70S THEN 20 MPH
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 75, SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE 4 CORNERS CONTINUES TO BE
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED. GUIDANCE IS HAVING TROUBLE, AS IS
TYPICAL, WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WHAT SHAPE IT WILL BE IN WHEN IT
REACHES THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND SEEMS PRETTY SAFE
FROM ANY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. DO
EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES AND LOWERS. HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SAT/SUN WITH LOWS
A LITTLE ABOVE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MON AND TUE IS MUCH LOWER
THAN FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT LIKELY TO SEE MUCH INCREASE IN FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND BETTER AGREEMENT/LESS BACK AND FORTH IN THE GUIDANCE
FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS. THIS IS WHEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM,
CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, MOVES INTO THE SAMPLING
NETWORK. AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW, NO PLANS TO DEVIATE FROM THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MON INTO TUE FOR NOW. THIS IS AN AREA WHERE LARGE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST SEEM PROBABLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH RAIN
CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AT THE SURFACE
APPEARS CUT AND DRY. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA SAT SHIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEAST SUN AND MON, SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE MON/TUE. THIS POINTS
TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW, LOWS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, BUT ONLY RESULTS IN SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
BY EARLY MORNING. SKIES CLEAR LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEST
WIND UP TO ~10 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE AS THE GRADIENT QUICKLY WEAKENS.
A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD MANAGE TO DEVELOP AND
CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO WESTERLY OR JUST SOUTH OF WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ARRIVES ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES OF 2-4 FT
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE 1-2 FT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THU INCREASES A BIT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
NORTH DURING FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. SPEEDS PICKUP AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED.
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT BY SAT MORNING AND COULD
REACH 20-25 KT SOMETIME SUN. SMALL CRAFT SEEMS LIKELY AT SOME
POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING.
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS THU AND FRI START TO GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW, ENDING UP 2-4
FT SAT AND 3-6 FT SUN. INITIALLY AN EAST SWELL IS DOMINANT, BUT
A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WAVE DEVELOPS EARLY SAT AND QUICKLY
BECOMES DOMINANT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...III/ABW
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