725
FXUS62 KILM 030021
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
721 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
AS OF 7 PM EST, THE UPPER LOW IS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE GA/AL BORDER. LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE STARTING TO ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THIS LOW, AS RAIN HAS STARTED TO FILL IN MORE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS AIDED BY SOME PRETTY DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-320K LAYER, WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT
PARTICULARLY IN THE 295-305K LAYER. SOME LIGHTNING SPOTTED ~20
NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE, BUT NOTHING OVER THE MAINLAND. SOME
COASTAL AREAS STILL MAY RECORD A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE
TONIGHT, BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
INCREASED THE HOURLY RAIN CHANCES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE
CURRENT TRENDS. ELSEWHERE, UPDATED 00Z TAF DISCUSSION FOUND
BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LIKELY REALIZED ALREADY AS A BLANKET OF
STRATOCU AND ALTOCU SETTLE ACROSS THE FA. AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROF, ALTHOUGH ONE COULD CALL IT A CLOSED UPPER LOW, IN THE
VICINITY OF CENTRAL TN ATTM, WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESE THIS AFTN
AND ALONG THE NC-SC BORDER TONIGHT AND TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS BY EARLY MON AFTN. AT THE SFC, A COASTAL TROF/FRONT
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE ILM CWA COASTLINE,
WILL MEANDER THRU TONIGHT, POSSIBLY PUSHING PARTIALLY INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. WEAK VORTS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC, WITH LIMITED GULF MOISTURE, WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE MAINLY STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE FA THAT
BREAK OUT LATER THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. WITH THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND AVBL BUT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH UPPER VORT DYNAMICS, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES
OF BOTH THE ILM NC AND SC CWA, WITH GENERALLY STRATIFORM RAINS
INLAND. SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE COASTAL FRONT OFF THE NC-SC
BORDER TONIGHT WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT THRU MON, REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE NC-VA
BORDER MON AFTN. THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL END EARLY MON MORNING
ACROSS THE FA, FROM SW TO NE. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WITH BLUSTERY
NW WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW SUB 50
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S, WILL GENERALLY REACH THAT PEAK
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING THRU THE AFTN AS CAA UNDER THOSE
BRISK NW WINDS OCCUR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIL OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS. A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TRA):
CLIMATE DATA FOR WILMINGTON INDICATES TUESDAY COULD BE THE 13TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WHERE THE DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW
THE 1991-2020 NORMALS.
COOL OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OPPORTUNITY. MIXED IN NBM10 WITH THE BASE NBM TO CAPTURE THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION RANGING FROM MID AND UPPER 30 TO LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY, THE DISCRETE FRONT WILL BE DISTINGUISHED
BY SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. A FEW GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD TOP OUT IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE. ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT ON THE TIMING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
WITH MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING ZONAL. THEREFORE, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
ON THURSDAY.
NICE WEATHER EXTENDS INTO FRIDAY WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ONSHORE WINDS AND WEAK
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
US WILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
FOLLOWING THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THIS BIAS IS LIKELY
GENERATING A LARGER DEPTH OF SATURATION THAN IS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING ON SATURDAY COULD BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S, BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND
THE POTENTIAL APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A MIXED BAG OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TO OPEN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD,
WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER AND NEAR KCRE/KMYR. RAIN
HAS STARTED TO PICK UP MORE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF SC LOWCOUNTRY SLOWLY TRACKING
TO THE NORTHEAST. STRATIFORM RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY TO FORM, GENERALLY
FROM 02-10Z. BRIEF BOUTS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DON'T HAVE
ANY IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT. MOST TSRA SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE,
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CB REACHING KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS
TO THE MAINLAND. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGHOUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF FOR EVERYONE
BY 14-15Z. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR THROUGHOUT
MONDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
BACK TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH DRIER AIR SLOWLY
INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...COASTAL TROF/FRONT OFFSHORE, MAY GET DRAWN
TOWARDS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF OR CLOSED
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SFC PG TIGHTENS SOME AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE NC-SC COASTS WITH THE END RESULT OF NE WINDS INCREASING.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND SHOULD
BE OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS BY MIDDAY MON. WINDS WILL BACK
FROM THE N TO NW FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU MON AND COULD REACH SCA
THRESHOLDS IN GUSTS LATE MON AFTN AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SFC LOW. SEAS WILL HAVE A SHORT TIME
TO BUILD AS THE FETCH DECREASES DUE TO THE EVENTUAL OFFSHORE
NATURE IN THE WINDS. AS A RESULT, SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 4
FT, WITH POSSIBLE 5 FOOTERS OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR LATE MON.
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM.
BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED VSBY IN PCPN WILL OCCUR FROM LATER THIS
AFTN THRU EARLY MON MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS
NEAR THE MEANDERING COASTAL TROF/FRONT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT BUILDING
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE TIGHTER GRADIENT DURING THIS
PERIOD COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WARMER OCEAN
WATERS. SCA POTENTIAL REMAINS MARGINAL WITH SEAS MAXIMIZED AT
3-5 FEET NEAR THE 20 NM MARKER. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF INCREASE IN SW WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
ADVISORIES. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ON
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...DCH/21
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